It’s Officially Official: We’re Tremendous Geeks…

In the search for insight, we’re getting heavily involved with the numbers. Turnovers are huge “tells” for us here at CAA: LAMM, as is the ability to defend and not be defended. I generally eschew assist-to-turnover ratio, due to the Corchiani Rule.**

One I’ve chosen to look more deeply into is steal percentage.

Heading into Richmond, every team knows what the other team is trying to do. Initial offensive strategy will likely be thwarted; thus a key, in my estimation, is getting easy baskets. One way to measure is this stat I made up called steal percentage. (Someone else may have made it up, but I haven’t seen it; thus I created it.)

Steal percentage is simply this: the percentage of turnovers forced via a steal. My hypothesis is this: if you need easy baskets, none are easier than layups and dunks in transition. How do you get into transition? Steal the basketball and start running.

EDIT: I’m sure Gasaway or Pomeroy or Whelliston can put some type of possessions per 40 minutes variable and come up with an actual stat for you, not the third grade kind I’ve provided. That’s why they are smart and I am not.)

Yes, turnovers are critical. Charges-drawn and walks-forced and passes to cheerleaders are great. The whistle blows, play stops, and you get the basketball. However, take the ball away and head the other way, quickly and with a hockey power play, is significant. You can get easy baskets and get into an emotional rhythm. I’m thinking those are critical.

Those are listed below, and after those numbers compare them to each team’s turnover differential for impact. The ability to keep the other guy from getting out on the break is important as well.

These are for the 18 conference games only.

Team Steals Turnovers Steal % Turnover Margin
ODU 142 235 60.43% 1.11
VCU 153 263 58.17% 1.89
Towson 128 229 55.90% 1.17
Ga State 121 228 53.07% -0.72
Hofstra 117 229 51.09% -3.17
UNCW 99 194 51.03% -3.33
NU 123 243 50.62% EVEN
Drexel 125 250 50.00% -0.44
Mason 108 218 49.54% 0.78
JMU 138 280 49.29% 0.94
W&M 120 253 47.43% 1.22
Delaware 114 251 45.42% 0.56

**–The Corchiani Rule references former NC State point guard Chris Corchiani, who broke the NCAA record for assists back in the 1980s. How Corchiani amassed this record has rendered the assist statistic dubious in my mind. It’s no secret home team stat men are a little more favorable to the home team. Thus, you generally see better assist numbers at home. Fine, we are all comfy with that. But what occurred in Raleigh was disturbingly biased.

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~ by mglitos on March 4, 2008.

3 Responses to “It’s Officially Official: We’re Tremendous Geeks…”

  1. Can you explain in further detail this Corchiani assist-padding theory? I love a good conspiracy, but I haven’t ever heard anything about this one. Is there old footage that shows him getting assists for makes he really had nothing to do with?

    PS: Love your website!

  2. Lies… fire and ice baby fire… and… ice

  3. There’s nothing official…just seemed to a lot of people in the old days that Corchiani had a ton of five assist games on the road and 12 assist games at home. Conspiracy theorists would have a field day.

    Bill–Rodney Monroe was one of the best pure shooters I’ve ever seen.

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