Let’s Say…

I have my handy-dandy tiebreakers sheet out and I’ve been through it at least twice. Still doesn’t make much sense, but that’s never stopped me in the past. This morning/afternoon, we pose some questions, such as the biggie (in a grand scheme kind of way):

Let’s say…VCU beats the Tribe tomorrow and wins Saturday and Sunday, but loses in the CAA Finals. Are they at large worthy? Worthy, yes. In the conversation, yes. At large team? No possible way to tell, because too many variables are there. The bubble is as malleable as its ever been, and many bubble teams just aren’t getting it done. You win your way in, and teams like St. Joseph’s and Arkansas aren’t choosing the east path. This of course, discounts what I call “stolen bids.” These are teams that will win their conference tournaments that were not getting into the NCAA tournament otherwise. Wright State could win the Horizon; San Diego could win the West Coast; heck, Minnesota winning the Big 10 counts.

I do know this: the next two weeks are going to be an incredible rollercoaster. We’re not bracketologists here at CAA: LAMM, but we do have a bit of Bubble Mongering in us. We’ll keep up with your rooting interests as best as possible.

Here’s the real shame. Let’s say the let’s say plays out and VCU loses to Your Team in the CAA finals. VCU would be 25-7, regular season champion (15-3) of the Colonial, and an RPI around 40. Maryland may be 10-6 in the ACC and around 21-12 overall, with an RPI around 50. Nonconference SOS: VCU is 74, Maryland is 87.

Most people have Maryland in and VCU out, despite ridiculously comparable “resumes.” Oh, we almost forgot. VCU defeated Maryland head-to-head. You know the always important “points for versus points against” stat.

***

Let’s say UNCW defeats ODU and VCU defeats W&M tomorrow. That makes VCU #1 at 15-3, UNCW #3 at 12-6, ODU #4 at 11-7, and W&M #5 at 10-8. The head man of one of these schools is going to win coach of the year. Who gets it?

Let’s say W&M and ODU win? Change your vote? Did you think about Monte Ross and a 10-8 Delaware team?

***

Let’s say we all agree that the first three players on the All CAA first team are not debatable: Eric Maynor, Will Thomas, and Antoine Agudio. Who are number four and five? I’ve got Valdie Kools and either TJ Carter, Jamal Shuler, or Flo Campbell. Right now my fifth vote is for Carter, but that could change after lunch.

***

Let’s say either UNCW or ODU play well in the tournament and make it to the finals and lose. Assuming Mason nabs the #2 seed and an NIT berth, do either of these teams deserve an NIT bid?

***

Let’s say the new College Basketball Invitational provides a better financial incentive to participating schools. Do any CAA teams jump to play in this event as opposed to the NIT? (I have a sneaky feeling you are going to see this occur; perhaps not in the CAA, but it will occur.)

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~ by mglitos on February 29, 2008.

One Response to “Let’s Say…”

  1. Correction and something I’ve been saying for years: only BCS league teams can “win” their way in to the Big Dance. Mid-Major sides cannot. The Tourney Selection Committee has less than zero respect for leagues like the CAA, MAC, West Coast, Sun Belt, MAAC, Southern, etc., etc. They don’t care how many wins VCU has in the CAA. Should the Rams lose, however, and you better believe the committee will keep them out because of that.

    Don’t be surprised if either Cleveland State or Wright State win the Horizon. They’ve both beaten Butler once and the return matches were close.

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