Clearly I Have An Educational Deficiency…

So RPI is all about winning games, plus scheduling teams that will win games. It is basically comprised of your winning percentage (25%), your opponents’ winning percentage (50%), and your opponents’ opponents winning percentage (25%). Strength of schedule is factored in as the final factor.

Help me here: Delaware and Nor’Easter have identical overall records (9-12), and Delaware is one game ahead of Nor’Easter in the conference (6-5 to 5-6). Further, Delaware has a better nonconference SOS (98 to 114) and better overall SOS (155 to 180). Road records are essentially the same: 4-9 for Delaware and 5-10 for Nor’Easter.

Obviously, Delaware has a better RPI, right?

Wrong.

Northeastern’s RPI is 171 and Delaware is 180.

***

Still digging standings symmetry.

***

Old Dominion at Nor’Easter: Long trip, Matthews Arena, February grind, quality opponent. All of these factors put the ODU freshmen in a hole. They respond, likely with the aid of a Brian Henderson (senior) three or two. There’s also something about Blaine Taylor and his line change subsititution patterns in a hockey arena. Is all that enough? I don’t think so. Cap’n Matt and the Boys 58, The Young and the Restless 55.

Towson at James Madison: The news is only getting worse for the Keenerifics. Now point guard Pierre Curtis is out with a knee injury, possibly for a long time. Methinks Abdullai Jalloh is a great leader when his team is winning; much less so when they are not. The Tigers are horrific on the road, but I like them in this game. CC Williams is probably the fastest, foot speed-wise, player in the conference and he is going to carve up the the JMU “defense.” Side note: The JYD versus JR Hairston is going to be a doozie. Final: I Won’t Back Down 74, Free Fallin’ 68.

Hofstra at William & Mary: Two seasons ago, this game was the most lopsided of the 70-odd games I attended while writing the book. Mr. Awshucks has a better team, and Pecora does not. Plus, the Featherless Wonders are playing at home. All of this obviously points to a Tribe victory, but we know better here at CAA: LAMM. The game turns when Mr. Awshucks goes to his bench to choose the “guy you’ve never heard of but will score 15 points” and ends up subbing a team manager. The manager does score 10 points and grab five rebounds, but he misses a three at the buzzer. Final: The Ghost of Kenny Adeleke 71, The Ghost of Adam Hess 69.

VCU at Georgia State: This one is a shooting percentage game. Anthony Grant will have devised a way to solve the triangle-and-two, box-and-one, Topeka Twist, I Could’ve Had a V-8, and every other junk defense Rod Barnes throws at VCU tonight. The difference resides in VCUs ability to simply make shots. If the Rams hit 47% or higher, it’s a rout. The Panthers need to get someone to take the heat off of Lennie Mendez. Final score: The Benson DuBois 63, The Fred G. Sanfords 52.

The Dub at The Dee: I’ll admit it right now…I won’t watch one second of that game that’s getting air time comparable to Super Tuesday coverage. No, I’ll be glued to this one, which should be very interesting…the talented team playing well on the road against the resurgent team whose lost five of six at home. UNCW will fall behind early because it’s 80 degrees today in Wilmington and the Seahawks’ players wonder why they are in freaking Newark and not on the beach. I know this because I’m wondering the same thing. Benny Moss refocuses them in time. Final: The Good Wilmington 74, The Bad Wilmington 67.

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~ by mglitos on February 6, 2008.

5 Responses to “Clearly I Have An Educational Deficiency…”

  1. Love the write up and predictions every Wed and Sat they are just great. Here is a reprint of mine:

    Picks for tonight:

    Hofstra in an mild upset 70-68 over William & Mary

    James Madison at home beats Towson 65-62 because Towson is god-awful on the road.

    Northeastern beats Old Dominion 73-69 because their inside game is better

    VCU over Georgia State 70-64, although an upset possibility is beckoning after GA State only lost 49-47 at VCU, but I just can’t bring myself to pick the upset.

    the late game tonight, UNCW bounces and trounces Delaware 77-65.

    Tomorrow night, George Mason crushes Drexel again 78-55.

    I was 5-1 each of the past two weeks and suspect I will be tonight as well.

  2. RPI Explanation:
    The RPI assigns the following weights to games not played at a neutral site:
    Home win: 0.6 wins
    Road loss: 0.6 losses (Northeastern has a lot of these)
    Home loss: 1.4 losses
    Road win: 1.4 wins
    If the road records you gave for Delaware and Northeastern are correct and Delaware hasn’t played any neutral site games (I know Northeastern hasn’t), then here are those teams’ “RPI records”
    Northeastern: 9.4-8.8 (plain winning % .429, RPI winning % .516)
    Delaware: 8.6-9.6 (plain winning % .429, RPI winning % .473)
    The teams have an RPI winning % about .044 apart.
    The home/road weighting is applied to your winning percentage for the purpose of your RPI, but when your record affects the RPI of a team you are opponents and/or opponents’ opponents with the home/road weightings are not used.
    Also, if two teams have the same RPI record the RPI doesn’t care which one of them has the better conference record.

  3. you’re doing the Lord’s work, mgl. tribe nation celebrates your entire catalogue.

  4. […] Following on the previous post, I have copied and pasted a comment by one of smarter readers. Thanks Evan Jones: […]

  5. Talked to DJ,Ben,and Frank a while ago. They now feel like they are starring in “Dynasty” and have been practicing air hockey all day at Faneuil Hall to get ready. Confidence is sky high, BH has found his stroke,BT has promised to limit his substitutions to twenty in the first 10 minutes, and a two game winning streak is due. Victories in the the Burg and Hotlanta make winning in Bean Town a breeze, plus the aftershocks of the Super Bowl debacle are still lingering. The Monarchs are a lock, bet a case of Stella.

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