Funky Cha-Cha

Predictions are further down the page, but today I want you to conceptualize. Think. Reason. I want you to remember the things you were thinking about last year at this time when you were creating the Two Bid scenario for the CAA.

Got it? Now think about that. Keep thinking. Ready?

Consider:
The CAA has five teams in the top 100 of the RPI–all of them–as well as in the Sagarin Ratings. Four teams crack Ken Pomeroy’s top 100.

Four teams are looking awfully strong (ODU, VCU, Drexel, adn Hofstra) and George Mason is right there.

The big wins that we don’t need to recap because you know them.

Anticipation for Bracket Busters. (Technically not a data point, I know, but think about Mason last year and the fact that BB will mean something.)

Five teams have a top 100 strength of schedule (the Poor Bills, Mason, Drexel, The Dub, and Hofstra). Perhaps a reach, but not really when you consider the Big East has exactly two. The SEC? Three. The ACC: ONE. And don’t give me the “their RPI will rise/fall as conference play continues, balancing out the RPI differentials” argument. For lack of a better word, that is crap. A BCS Phony who goes 8-8 in conference, losing to the truly good teams while beating their own dregs has proven nothing, and SOS is no factor. The Clemson Model is useless.

What I am saying is this: we were all saying the exact same things last year at this time, and the CAA received two bids.

***

I stayed up way past my bedtime last night savoring the Texas/Oklahoma State triple OT thriller. Yes, we are a mid major nation, but that game is why college basketball is best sport on the planet. Period.

***

I love Ken Pomeroy. Well, okay, I don’t, but I love his work. If you haven’t checked out his site you are missing out.

You get loads of stats and analysis, more so than anywhere. Click through and pay attention. It’s great stuff. Ken has put a statistical variable against, of all things, Luck.

Think about that.

***

Las Predictiones
No telling what I just wrote. I took six years of Latin.

William & Mary at George Mason: Will Thomas scores 19 points on 8-of-10 shooting and it’s too much for Laimus Kisielius and his 17 points to overcome. I like the Patriots on the road. A lot. I’m very confident.
Final Call: Tall Coach 76, Short Coach 63

Old Dominion at James Madison: I think I’ve figured out what Dean Keener needs. A nickname. A really good one to instill fear upon his opponents since he’s so nice and even tempered. In keeping with the bad Spanish motif I have working, Dean Keener is now Senor Crankypants. It’s not enough tonight, but the tide is turning.
Final Call: Another Tall Coach 74, Senor Crankypants 59

Georgia State at Delaware: I don’t know why I smell a brickfest coming, but I do. The Ron Larris vs. Brian Johnson point guard matchup will remind you of the midget basketball game put on by your local VFW at a junior high to raise money. Harding “Herb” Courtney is going to run circles around DDickerson, but it won’t be enough.
Final Call: You Go Juco 58, Rebuild from Scratch 56

UNCW at VCU: Three predictions in and I haven’t said one nice thing. Maybe I should check my pants for cranky. To beat VCU, you have to shoot the ball well. The Dub is ninth in the conference and nearly just broke an NCAA FG futility mark. Other item of note: VCU is first in the CAA in turnover ratio and UNCW is last. Uh oh.
Final Call: Ulysses S. 79, Rolling Stone Gathers No 62

Northeastern at Drexel: The Huskies were a surprise all last year. They were a surprise when they beat The Dub. They were a surprise when they beat Hofstra. Here’s a question: when do they get to stop being a surprise and are given proper credit? Answer: right now. But no matter how good they are, they aren’t winning at Drexel when the Dragons are coming off a bad loss with rest.
Final Call: Hot House 64, X & Y 53

(Side note: give me the album references…)

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~ by mglitos on January 17, 2007.

4 Responses to “Funky Cha-Cha”

  1. Nice prediction on the Mason game. Oh wait … it was already played. 😉

  2. Here’s my prediction:

    The ODU folks will go back into hibernation after tonight’s loss.

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