Never Nervous Alibi

So I did a ton of digging for you yesterday based on yesterday’s post. Well, okay, I spent three minutes and wrote an email to Ken Pomeroy, who did the legwork for me.

Hey, he’s the expert. (Thanks Ken.)

I had Ken run the remaining schedules for Hofstra, ODU, and UNCW, with all three teams winning out. I also had each team winning its way to the CAA final, where it would lose, complete with projected opponents. The interest: just where would these three prospects be, RPI-wise, if they won out until the CAA final.

Here is what Ken provided:

UNCW–Final RPI, assuming wins here and loss in CAA final: 31
at VCU–69
Ga. State–243
CAA tourney Quarter (Drexel-118)
CAA tourney semi (Hofstra–47)
CAA final loss

Hofstra–Final RPI, assuming wins here and loss in CAA final: 32
Mason–20
Drexel–118
CAA tourney Quarter (VCU–69)
CAA tourney semi (UNCW–38)
CAA final loss

ODU–Final RPI, assuming wins here and loss in CAA final: 45
at JMU–298
at Delaware–244
CAA tourney Quarter (Northeastern–108)
CAA tourney semi (Mason–20)
CAA final loss

***

What does this tell us?

1. ODU is not an at large team. If DePaul and Georgia slip about 10 RPI spots, the Monarchs have but three top 100 RPI victories: UNCW and George Mason (2). And I’m sorry Monarch fans. Two wins over top 25 George Mason is WAY different than two wins over Top 25 Syracuse. That Richmond loss is glaring–keep in mind Craig Littlepaige watched that one.

2. If Hofstra indeed wins out and doesn’t make the tournament, you can look no further than its bloated SOS. (Don’t tell Gregg Doyel, even if I agree with him…)

3. Let’s not get caught in RPI-hysteria. The committee will use the following, in addition to all the “record versus X-Y teams in RPI” Be sure to track these, too:

– Division-I record
– Conference record
– Non-Conference record
– Conference RPI
– Non-Conference RPI
– Road record
– Record in last 10 games

4. I’m going to need to search for a cliche to describe tomorrow’s games and their BIGNESS: UNCW at VCU and Mason at Hofstra.

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~ by mglitos on February 22, 2006.

4 Responses to “Never Nervous Alibi”

  1. I was at the Richmond game also, and ODU came out flat, down 17-0, which is a death sentence against a team that holds the ball. Rally back to force OT, Isaiah Hunter’s T killed them. I think Littlepage was at the Mason game also, the game after Brandon Johnson was shot. Those RPI’s are assumptions. In ODU’s case they do not take into account what Mason may do on Thursday, or what Va Tech, Depaul, Wisconsin, E Carolina, Marist, or any other team they played this year for that matter. But I agree a RPI of 45 would certainly keep them out. Hofstra would have a great shot with that RPI. Too bad they have to get through potentially VCU in Richmond then UNCW. I think that side of the bracket would be the more competitive side. I’m glad ODU probably doesn’t end up over there.

  2. A small correction….ODU’s 3 top 100 wins (not counting DePaul and Georgia) are Mason, VCU, and UNCW — they have not beaten Mason twice.

  3. Must be a mason fan with the reading comprehension: read the damn scenarios for ODU, pal.

  4. Actually an ODU fan, anonymous hero…

    I see where you get that number against GMU then. But wouldn’t the number of RPI top 100 wins then be 4 then — GMU(2), VCU, UNCW???

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