Up Went the Lights

Interesting…when someone makes the right decision, there is surely an ulterior motive. When the same person makes the wrong decision, they are stupid. But I digress…

***

No word on Hofstra’s Carlos Rivera. The point guard turned over his ankle early in the game against The Dub and did not return. I’m betting he’s a Charlie Steiner case. Keep in mind, also, that Hofstra plays three conference games next week. Part of adding Siena to the schedule is William & Mary on Monday, George Mason on Thursday, and Drexel on Saturday.

***

The latest NCAA RPI numbers have GMU at #27, The Dub at #45, ODU at #51, and Hofstra at #55. Kem Pomeroy’s RPI update gets both Hofstra and ODU into the top 50. Four top 50 teams would be huge, if only to provide the committee more crooked numbers to look at when evaluating the CAAs performance against top 50 RPI schools. Keep in mind, too, that Nor’Easter is hovering around the 100 mark. Barea’s Heroes need to keep winning for the same purpose…

***

Today’s Side Note: The Dub’s big win over Hofstra gave the Hawks 20 victories, joining George Mason with the eye-catching victory total. Hofstra and ODU are mortal locks for 20 wins, and VCU has an outside chance. Tournaments, bids, RPI, whatever aside, the conference has a shot to have five teams win 20 games with less than 10 losses.

***

Today’s Tourney Tidbit
This does not guarantee tomorrow…

I’ve got to figure that there is a limit to the number of at large bids all mid majors will receive. To borrow from Kyle Whelliston, at the end of the day the NCAA tournament is a television show. If it comes down to Indiana or George Mason, who do you think gets chosen?

That said, I don’t even think it’s necessarily an active move on the part of the selection committee. There are very deserving mid majors, and no matter what scenario you try to create, they cannot be left out of the torunament. It’s when you get to the questionable teams that it become almost a passive thought: four or five MVC teams, or even a second CAA team becomes a big number against Indiana or Colorado or Stanford.

With that approach in mind, I think it’s an okay move to then say that mid majors probably have four at large bids to split nationally. The contenders:

George Mason
UNCW
Hofstra
Wichita State
Creighton
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Bucknell
Nevada
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Air Force
San Diego State
UAB
Temple

I’ve got 15 teams listed and eight conferences represented. If you assume that someone from list wins its conference tournament–and you should absolutely root that way–to get the auto bid, there are seven mid majors fighting for four spots.

Note: Joe Lunardi actually gives mid majors six at large berths: three to the MVC (SIU, Creighton, North. Iowa) and one each for the CAA (UNCW), Moutain West (Air Force), and WAC (Utah State).

Sure, there are holes in this theory and approach, but it meets my goal of giving you another way to look at it. Also, I don’t see how Utah State is even in thne conversation, much less get one of the at larges…but that goes to show you…I’m not sure what, but it shows you something…

***

Albany at VCU tonight. Just what everyone was waiting for…

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~ by mglitos on February 17, 2006.

11 Responses to “Up Went the Lights”

  1. I’m curious why you would believe UNCW would get the bid over GMU. Unless GMU drops hard in their last coming games, right now, they seem to be getting most of the attention nationally of all the teams in the CAA.

  2. Not sure where I implied that–perhaps calling GMU an at large team in the tourney?

    Clearly GMU is the team with the best resume in the CAA. If I implied otherwise, let this post clear that up.

  3. Well, going back I saw that it was someone *else* who made those picks. My apologies, I shouldn’t read into things when I’m heavily hungover. Nonetheless, how do you feel GMU’s chances of still getting at at-large bid are if they drop to Wichita State and Hofstra (which I have a feeling will occur, even though I’m obviously a Mason fan)?

  4. What gives UNCW a better at large than ODU? They will finish more than likely within one game of each other in conference. ODU handled them at the Ted. ODU was the team everyone and I mean everyone was gunning for this year. ODU is defending champion and represented themselves well last year in the NCAA. I like to see who UNCW has defeated in Non-Conference, probably not the caliber of Georgia, Fordham , Depaul by 44, Virginia Tech, and tomorrow Marist. UNCW is a nice team, and everyone has them ahead of ODU for at large consideration and I cannot see why? Conference Record? Please it’s an unbalanced schedule. ODU’s biggest detriment seems to be they went 28-6 last year.

  5. UNCW RPI #38
    ODU RPI #58

    That is why.

  6. Show me a Substantial team non conference UNCW has beaten. The committee in the past has not relied on RPI but has leaned towards key wins. I think UNCW is a good team and I pull for them to do good, but RPI alone is a weak argument.

  7. Potential performance in the NCAA tourney has something to do with it. ODU has struggled big time this year no matter what people thought of them before the year. with hunter and johnson injured I think a healthy UNCW team is a much better choice for the conf!

  8. Another weak argument is saying that Old Dominion deserves an at large.

    DePaul is in 15th in the Big East. Virginia Tech is in last in the ACC. Fordham is below .500. Marist is a middle-of-the-pack MAAC team.
    These are the wins you hope get you into the NCAA?

    Also in between UNCW and ODU in the RPU is Hofstra, a team that ODU has lost to twice.

    Old Dominion has no shot without winning the CAA tournament (which it may very well do).

  9. I agree as of right now ODU hasn’t earned a bid, but my point was they would have a stronger case than UNCW. ODU’s record against the two teams getting all the love in the conference is 2-1. With what Mason accomplished yesterday gives further credence that if the MVC gets multiple bids then the CAA is more than deserving. Mason has by far the better resume right now, I believe ODU will be next in line. Hofstra and ODU have simliar opportunties in that if either reaches the conf final and loses to Mason then I believe they have a more than respectable shot.

  10. The only way I see CAA getting 2 in the tourney is if Mason loses the CAA conf. tourney. I think Mason has done the job to receive an at-large, and would feel that if they don’t win the CAA tournament, and don’t receive an at-large, they have been robbed.

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