“Interesting” Is Such A Lame Descriptor…

However it is the best I can muster today. I spent some time over the past two days at VCUs Siegel Center, where the school hosted–through its SportsCenter graduate program–the International Showcase 2008.

The short version: about 80 kids who have completed their eligibility are split into teams and play five exhibition games over a couple of days. The upside is that they play these exhibitions in front of NBA, NBDL, and most importantly international scouts. The goal is to give the kids exposure in hopes of securing tryouts and/or contracts to play professionally. Perhaps a few will sign with an agent.

The best part is that these players are “our” players. They come from Savannah State and Hampton and Dayton and Southern Illinois and all kinds of directional schools. They are getting the exposure they never received while in school and this is only a good thing.

It is a very “interesting” atmosphere, something only gym rats can appreciate. There are only a smattering of people in the seats. Those people aren’t just the handful of scouts alternating between furiously scribbling notes and idly checking their Blackberry. You see some family, a press guy or three, players from other teams waiting to play, and folks like me.

The games aren’t hardscrabble playground tilts, either. Not at first, anyway. Games are run in two 20-minute halves, the officials are not just real officials but they wear standard officiating garb. They also, gasp, call fouls. There is a shot clock. (Side note: I’d comment about my appreciation for the lack of four media timeouts each half, but I like to dabble in reality.)

Until players get tired, they run versions of the weave offense and work for a shot. There were several shot clock violations. In short, the kids were getting after it. And like you would expect, once everyone got tired and got their shots it became a giant garbage time exercise.

So what did I see?

I saw a familiar face that I didn’t immediately place. He was a big man with pretty good hands and some solid post moves. I checked the program to find #16 in grey was former JMU Dukes center Chris Cathlin. I’d say he looked approximately 452 times better than he ever looked in the CAA.

I didn’t see VCUs Jamal Shuler or Michael Anderson, but I heard from an unbiased source Shuler lit the place up.

The best player there, from those I saw, was New Mexico’s Jamaal Smith. That kid could shoot, penetrate, dish, and defend. Shaun Reynolds, a point guard from New Orleans, stood out as well. Reynolds seemed to have a gear nobody else could match, and I doubt anybody had more fun playing than he did.

Greg Gonzalez (Carnegie Mellon) and Beau Muehlbach (Texas A&M) also made my note cards.

 

You Don’t Know (And, Frankly, Neither Do I)…

We jettisoned ourselves to the land of Kenny George over the holiday. Longtime CAA: LAMM readers know we have friends that live in the western mountains of North Carolina, and their property is beautifully situated. From their back porch, on a clear day we can see Tennessee. On a cloudy day, we can see the back yard. The beauty resides in the fact that most days our view is in-between. This affords us the opportunity to see something new nearly every single trip. The camera is always packed first.

These retreats seem to fall in perfect time and order. Drinking and eating is usually bordered by periods of extreme sitting and game-playing. Oh, it isn’t the Nintendo game playing. The television is unnecessary. No, it is classics like Labyrinth that pass the time. Otherwise, I read and think about what the summer will hold, and how that will translate to college basketball. Yes, I am that geeky, but I don’t apologize.

This year I chose to do my best to validate early thoughts of what the conference was going to look like next season. In typical fashion, this type of pure, unfiltered thinking dovetailed, sometime between the sixth Stella and sunset. I’m not sure.

I started thinking about our goal here of thinking. That is, I always encourage you to think a given situation instead of rehashing what you saw somewhere else. For whatever reason that led me back to predictions, and ultimately the point of this ramble.

You don’t know what is going to happen next season. And I mean that on a far different level than “duh, of course we can’t predict the future.” What I mean is that we spend so much time thrashing about with what we do know–statistics and such–that “what we don’t know” is severely underrated.

The what we do know is easy–the same opinions are generated from the same data and obtained by using the same analysis. Sure, it makes great message board fodder, but it doesn’t even begin to gauge the impact of the unknown.

A lot of data is relatively meaningless, versus the incalculable unknown event. Here’s what I mean:

Consider Your Team’s chances to finish in the top three of the standings next season. No doubt this thinking starts with who is lost and who is added. The second step is surely to chart the “progress” of the returning players.

“Joe Smith averaged X points and X rebounds, and if improves to Y points and Y rebounds, we’re in good shape.” You will likely do that for several players, and do the same for other teams.

Don’t do it. You are wasting your time.

Let’s say Joe Smith averages exactly the same number of points and rebounds. Let’s say three players all average the same numbers as last season, and only a marginal freshman improves his numbers. Is that really the different in second and seventh place?

No way. A couple of points/rebounds here and there cannot make that big of a difference. It is the unexpected event that will shape the season.

Practical example?

Two seasons ago, VCU went from sixth place in the conference to first. Do you think that was because BA Walker and Jesse Pellot Rosa and Jamal Shuler all improved their averages and impacts marginally from the previous season? Partly, yes. But the big impact was an unknown named Eric Maynor that went from a handful of minutes per game to an All Conference performer and dagger shooter. Nobody could (legitimately) see that coming.

I’m wagering nobody put into their calculations two seasons ago that TJ Carter would injure himself to the point of missing an entire season. Sure, UNCW lost Temi Soyebo and had a new coach, but those were marginal compared to the unexpected loss of Carter, and certainly not reasons that would take you from 25 wins to seven.

It’s also why I imagine we’re going to have to look more closely at recruiting here at CAA: LAMM. That is the hotbed of the unknown. We’ll call that the Fonzie Dawson rule, in honor of the best freshman last season nobody knew anything about.

It’s what you don’t know. Think about what you don’t know and give it the proper consideration. Just think.

I know I will.

It’s A BigGiantHugeWide Mid Major World…

Until now, I think there are three people in the free world that know this fact. Two have likely forgotten. It isn’t a big deal, but it is one of those random tidbits that helps to shape the picture of why we keep rolling along with this endeavor two years after the book was published.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s I had a fling with the Big West Conference. I have no idea why, but I couldn’t get enough of it. Perhaps it was all the Cal-Hyphens or the mystery of the west coast, but no matter. I could rattle off the Santa Barbara lineup and openly rooted against UNLV. (Where have you gone, Ced Ceballos?)

Full circle? I received a random email last night from a kid by the name of Jayme Miller. He played for Cal State-Northridge (love those hyphens) and created a documentary for a class he is taking.

I present it here for no other reason than it represents what is very good about college basketball. Miller is the kind of kid you hope and believe will be successful.

From the Head-Scratching Department…

A huge section of the Odds and Ends file is devoted to scheduling. There are so many issues it is impossible to deal with them all in a single, coherent fashion. Here’s today’s version: I don’t get the scheduling flap sometimes.

I spent 15 minutes this morning on Basketball Travelers, a site chock full of highly interesting information. I was able to glean, in that 15 minutes:

UNCW is looking for a home-and-home, December 3 of this year. Charlotte is looking for a home-and-home, December 3 of this year. Both teams want to stat at home, but really, if you want a game and need a game surely a handful on Benjamins could persuade one of these schools to start on the road, no? Seems like it would be a nice regional matchup. Just me.

An Excel spreadsheet, a few phone numbers, and some persuasion skills and I may start the college basketball version of Match.com.

There is that need.

Vacation Is Nearing An End…

Just in time to head to the beach. However, we are tracking:

1. Tommy O’Connor closing in on the Commish-ship of the Atlantic Bunch.

2. A new book that I’m wagering you enjoy.

3. Movers and shakers. (Players, coaches, etc.)

4. Odds and ends. (Culling the random notes I didn’t get to during the season.)

5. Five is a good number.