One Shining Moment…And a Keepinmind…

Let’s say…a miracle occurs and I correctly predict all six Saturday games. (Insert joke here.) I’m just saying.

For the record (and to give us the content of this post), I like VCU to beat W&M, UNCW to beat ODU, Hofstra over Drexel, Mason over Nor’easter, Delaware over Towson, and JMU over Ga State.

This sets up the final standings and seeds to look like:

#1 VCU 15-3

#2 Mason 13-5

#3 UNCW 12-6

#4 ODU 11-7

#5 Delaware 10-8

#6 W&M 10-8

#7 Nor’easter 8-10

#8 Hofstra 8-10

#9 Towson 6-12

#10 Drexel 5-13

#11 JMU 5-13

#12 Georgia State 5-13

***

That gives us the following matchups:

FRIDAY OPENING ROUND

Delaware vs. Ga State

W&M vs. JMU

Nor’easter vs. Drexel

Hofstra vs. Towson

SATURDAY QUARTERS

VCU vs. Hofstra/Towson winner

Mason vs. Nor’easter/Drexel winner

UNCW vs. W&M/JMU winner

ODU vs. Delaware/Ga State winner

***

Keep in Mind

JMU defeated VCU

Georgia State defeated Mason

Nor’easter defeated ODU

Drexel and JMU defeated UNCW

Nobody is safe, on any day.

Let’s Say…

I have my handy-dandy tiebreakers sheet out and I’ve been through it at least twice. Still doesn’t make much sense, but that’s never stopped me in the past. This morning/afternoon, we pose some questions, such as the biggie (in a grand scheme kind of way):

Let’s say…VCU beats the Tribe tomorrow and wins Saturday and Sunday, but loses in the CAA Finals. Are they at large worthy? Worthy, yes. In the conversation, yes. At large team? No possible way to tell, because too many variables are there. The bubble is as malleable as its ever been, and many bubble teams just aren’t getting it done. You win your way in, and teams like St. Joseph’s and Arkansas aren’t choosing the east path. This of course, discounts what I call “stolen bids.” These are teams that will win their conference tournaments that were not getting into the NCAA tournament otherwise. Wright State could win the Horizon; San Diego could win the West Coast; heck, Minnesota winning the Big 10 counts.

I do know this: the next two weeks are going to be an incredible rollercoaster. We’re not bracketologists here at CAA: LAMM, but we do have a bit of Bubble Mongering in us. We’ll keep up with your rooting interests as best as possible.

Here’s the real shame. Let’s say the let’s say plays out and VCU loses to Your Team in the CAA finals. VCU would be 25-7, regular season champion (15-3) of the Colonial, and an RPI around 40. Maryland may be 10-6 in the ACC and around 21-12 overall, with an RPI around 50. Nonconference SOS: VCU is 74, Maryland is 87.

Most people have Maryland in and VCU out, despite ridiculously comparable “resumes.” Oh, we almost forgot. VCU defeated Maryland head-to-head. You know the always important “points for versus points against” stat.

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Let’s say UNCW defeats ODU and VCU defeats W&M tomorrow. That makes VCU #1 at 15-3, UNCW #3 at 12-6, ODU #4 at 11-7, and W&M #5 at 10-8. The head man of one of these schools is going to win coach of the year. Who gets it?

Let’s say W&M and ODU win? Change your vote? Did you think about Monte Ross and a 10-8 Delaware team?

***

Let’s say we all agree that the first three players on the All CAA first team are not debatable: Eric Maynor, Will Thomas, and Antoine Agudio. Who are number four and five? I’ve got Valdie Kools and either TJ Carter, Jamal Shuler, or Flo Campbell. Right now my fifth vote is for Carter, but that could change after lunch.

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Let’s say either UNCW or ODU play well in the tournament and make it to the finals and lose. Assuming Mason nabs the #2 seed and an NIT berth, do either of these teams deserve an NIT bid?

***

Let’s say the new College Basketball Invitational provides a better financial incentive to participating schools. Do any CAA teams jump to play in this event as opposed to the NIT? (I have a sneaky feeling you are going to see this occur; perhaps not in the CAA, but it will occur.)

Side Note, Re: The Exes…

I’m watching Wright State at Butler right now, and two things jumped out at me:

1. The “Star Watch” at the tipoff was Mike Green (Butler) and Vaughan Duggins (WSU). Green transferred to Butler from Towson, and Duggins was coming to UNCW with Brownell.

2. Steve Lavin just noted that Brad Brownell is 10-0 in one-point games in the past two years. That’s a wow stat. (For you bitter conspiracy theorists: zip it. I’m a Benny Moss fan. One has nothing to do with the other.)

(MAJOR EDIT) Make Lemonade? Yeah, That’s A Ways Down the Emotional Ladder…

It’s funny how seemingly random events in your life tie together.

And then we’ll edit out a bunch of garbage unnecessary but seemed quality last night…

Anyway, I’m reading an article by Jason King at Yahoo about the subject, and Ian O’Leary from St. Mary’s, after its 89-85 overtime thriller over Gonzaga, had the following quote: “People can call us a mid-major if they want,” O’Leary said. “But seriously, after watching us out there tonight, how can you say there was anything ‘mid’ about that?”

And it hit me. Who cares? I know what it’s about. You know. Guys like Whelliston know. The gents at G: TB have it figured out. We follow this conference and basketball with fewer resources because it’s fun. Pure.

(Lots of unnecessary stuff…)

Bring me a beer.

Simply Put: Here’s All Tiebreaker Scenarios…

Well worth it…check this out while I get my act together:

VCU has clinched the #1 seed

George Mason is the #2 seed with a win at Northeastern on Saturday

If George Mason and UNC Wilmington are tied for second at 12-6:

UNC Wilmington is the #2 seed and George Mason is the #3 seed based on the sweep of their season series.

 If George Mason and Old Dominion are tied for second at 12-6:

George Mason is the #2 seed and Old Dominion is the #3 seed. The teams split the head-to-head series, but Mason is 1-0 versus #1 VCU while ODU is 1-1.

 If Old Dominion and William & Mary are tied for fourth at 11-7:

Old Dominion is the #4 seed and William & Mary is the #5 seed if George Mason wins and is the #2 seed based on the Monarchs’ 1-1 record versus Mason while the Tribe is 0-1.

 

William & Mary is the #4 seed and Old Dominion is the #5 seed if George Mason loses and UNCW is the #2 seed based on the Tribe’s 1-1 record versus the Seahawks, while the Monarchs would be 0-2.

 If UNC Wilmington and William & Mary are tied for fourth at 11-7:William & Mary is the #4 seed and UNC Wilmington is the #5 seed. The teams split the head-to-head series, but the Tribe would be 1-1 versus #1 VCU while the Seahawks are 0-2. If William & Mary and Delaware are tied for fifth at 10-8:

Delaware is the #5 seed and William & Mary is the #6 seed based on the Blue Hens’ win in the head-to-head matchup.

 If Delaware and Northeastern are tied for sixth at 9-9:

Northeastern is the #6 seed and Delaware is the #7 seed based on the Huskies’ sweep of the season series.

 If Northeastern and Hofstra are tied for seventh at 8-10:

Northeastern is the #7 seed and Hofstra is the #8 seed. The teams split the head-to-head series, but the Huskies have a win over Old Dominion and William & Mary (one of whom will be in the top four).

 If Hofstra and Towson are tied for eighth at 7-11:

Towson is the #8 seed and Hofstra is the #9 seed. The teams split the head-to-head series, but the Tigers have a win over William & Mary (who will be in the top five).

 If Towson and Drexel are tied for ninth at 6-12:The teams split the head-to-head series. Towson is the #9 seed and Drexel is the #10 seed if William & Mary beats VCU and UNCW loses to ODU (making W&M the #4 seed and UNCW is the #5 seed) based on Towson’s win over the Tribe. Drexel is the #9 seed and Towson is the #10 seed if UNCW beats ODU or W&M loses to VCU (making UNCW a higher seed than W&M) based on Drexel’s win over UNCW. If Towson and Georgia State are tied for ninth at 6-12:Georgia State is the #9 seed and Towson is the #10 seed. The teams split the head-to-head series, but the Panthers have a win over George Mason while the Tigers are 0-2. If Towson, Drexel and Georgia State are tied for ninth at 6-12:

The three teams are a combined 2-2 against each other.  If George Mason finishes as the #2 seed, Georgia State will be the #9 seed based on their win over the Patriots. Towson is the #10 seed if UNCW loses to ODU and W&M beats VCU, making Drexel the #11 seed. Drexel is the #10 seed if UNCW beats ODU or W&M loses to VCU, making Towson the #11 seed. If UNCW finishes as the #2 seed, Drexel is the #9 seed based on its win over the Seahawks, Georgia State is the #10 seed based on its win over Mason and Towson is the #11 seed.

It’s A Weeding Wednesday…Part One…And Two–We’ve Added On…

I’m closing in on lunch, so we’ll go halfsies with tonight’s games. And don’t think I’ve forgotten about “What If.” We’ll still play, but it is a much better game tomorrow or Friday.

Tonight is going to provide all manner of hoo-baby moments and results. How do I know this? Even if the favorites win every game; even if the most boring confluence of game results occurs; the impact on the standings is monumental.

The chatter will be deafening. Why? Because, as we stated a couple weeks ago, the CAA Tournament is going to be a war of matchups. What occurs tonight sets up Saturday which sets up those matchups. This is going to be a very fun week, even though I will struggle with it–more detail on that later.

That said, what are we looking towards tonight?

The Dub at VCU: In two of the past three meetings between these schools in Richmond, there’s been explosives. Three seasons ago VCU trailed by 19 points with five minutes to play and 10 points with two minutes to play; yet rallied to win in overtime. Two seasons ago, The Dub trailed by 15 points in the second half and rallied to roll VCU. Plus, you are looking at two teams playing very good basketball.

We’re going to watch matchups and adjustments particularly closely. For The Dub, we want to see how they guard Eric Maynor, but more importantly how they adjust. Benny Moss is a big believer that the Hawks must stop the dribble drive. So how well does Maynor shoot it? Who guards him? Obviously TJ Carter is a good answer, but I fear for Chad Tomko matching up with Jamal Shuler. For VCU, it’s about how they try to handle Vladie Kools. Kuljanin will push Larry Sanders all over the court, so the obvious call for Anthony Grant is to Kirill Pischalnikov. But that hampers the VCU team defense and its ability to guard, in particular, Todd Hendley.

The important facets? If VCU is knocking down the jumpers UNCW is in all kinds of trouble. They will have to guard VCU out to the three point line, and that opens up Moss’s worst fears: Eric Maynor running free into the lane. Other side? Todd Hendley shooting from 15 feet, and Chad Tomko playing like a junior. I say that because Vladie Kools is good for 15 and 12, and TJ Carter 16 points, six rebounds, and five assists. It’s going to come down to the “other guys.”

Vegas says VCU -13 and I say that is crazy talk. I think it is lower scoring than most people believe. VCU 63, UNCW 57.

***

Biggun’ #2…The Tribe at George Mason: We’ll start by assuming there will be no motorcycle fumes, burnt popcorn, or cell phone battery radiation in the Patriot Center that will affect Will Thomas. That aside, the Ohio game on Saturday, I think, summed up the Patriots’ entire season. I still don’t know what to make of this team, and we’re closing in on March.

Stashing the jokes (for now), William & Mary is like the irresistable force. You are going to get consistent play and effort. They remind me of UNCW from a few years back. They aren’t going on a sexy 16-2 run over 1:30; rather, they will string together three 10-4 runs and you’re suddenly down by a bunch.

For Mason, establishing John Vaughan is the key. Much like UNCW above, I expect Thomas and Folarin Campbell to have their usual outputs. It’s Vaughan and Dre Smith that need to make a difference. Plus, they will need to defend for 35 seconds every possession, something they haven’t much been interested in over the past few games.

What it comes down is whether or not The Tribe is shooting the basketball. They got away from their sets in the Towson game and paid the price. Mason’s defense needs to establish a similar game flow. I think they will; we always take defense over shooting. I like Mason round about 66-59.

***

The rest of the games after my turkey sandwich.

***

Nor’easter at ODU: These two duked it out at the beginning of the month, with the Huskies prevailing in Mattews 67-60. This may have been ODUs freshmen wake up call game, as Nor’easter pushed ODU around and was generally the tougher team. Nor’easter outrebounded ODU 40-31 and shot 27 free throws to ODUs 12. Of course, Nor’easter also made 24 free throws and ODU five. It was a game ODU only turned the ball over six times and lost.

ODU is a different team now, playing different basketball. Nor’easter is still one of the most quiet tough teams in the conference. This one is going to be low scoring, with free throws again telling the story. I like the home team 57-52.

Hofstra at Delaware: Sorry Hens fans, but this is the game where the rest of the conference starts looking at matchups and praying they don’t draw Hofstra. I like the Pride, 76-71.

Finally, Dean Keener admitted it was a different feeling coaching on Saturday. Teams always lost the second game of emotional situations. We’ll take Drexel at home here. And go with Ga State over Towson. Roadie and all. With Ga State involved, though, it will be a last possession game.

Keeping Our Ears to the Ground, With Mute Button Set to “On…”

From the CAA coaches teleconference:

Tom Pecora, on his frosh of the year candidate Charles Jenkins: “It’s great to see a freshman not hit the wall.”

Pecora, on Tony Shaver: “In my opinion he’s hands down the coach of the year.”

Poor Bill Coen, on his player of the year vote: “Sometimes, statistically, things get skewed.” His vote right now is Eric Maynor, but “there is still some basketball to be played. It’s so close you wish there were three or four awards because there are that many deserving players in this league.”

Same question was put to Anthony Grant, who mentioned Will Thomas and Vladie Kools. Grant gave special mention to Antoine Agudio for what he’s done to make his team better.

Benny Moss said TJ Carter has been worth “seven or eight” victories alone, maybe eight or nine. Whether scoring, distributing, or defending, Carter has been the difference-maker.

Now here’s something that made me laugh out loud. Jim Larranaga was talking about Will Thomas, and his nine point, nine rebound game Saturday against Ohio came up. Larranaga described one possible reason was that ”as it turns out Will has asthma.” And, during the pregame festivities the Ohio mascot (or someone) drove a motorcycle out onto the court to fire up the crowd. According to Larranaga the fumes from the motorcycle bothered Thomas.

With a nod to Dave Barry, I am not making this up.

Coupla Random Notes…

Found this on the Youtubes…it is a history of Nor’Easter basketball, done extremely well by the Huskies’ DBO Steve Scalzi. It is highly recommended for those of you that don’t know anything of the basketball program earlier than Cap’n Matt and JJB. There’s a young Jim Calhoun, Reggie Lewis, and a lot of white guys with short-shorts and bad haircuts.

Definitely worth your time.

***

The home office loves Hofstra this week. Antoine Agudio was named the conference player of the week and Charles Jenkins the freshman of the week. Agudio averaged 25.5 ppg last week, and Jenkins averaged 22.5 per. Jenkins had career highs of 28 points and 10 rebounds against Iona on Saturday.

***

Speaking of Agudio, he is now 10 points shy of passing Steve Nisenson as Hofstra’s all time leading scorer. He should pass Nisenson round about the under 4:00 media timeout against Delaware.

***

We were chatting with John Castleberry last Thursday. ODU fans know Castleberry as their former play-by-play man, and Castleberry now does television for the conference. He thought Drexel might be a tough out in Richmond because of the way they play defense. I agreed, assuming the same thing everyone does: Drexel plays tough defense.

The stats don’t bear out that assertion.

Drexel is sixth in steals, sixth in blocked shots, 10th in rebound defense, fifth in field goal percentage defense, sixth in scoring defense, ninth in rebound margin, and 10th in turnover margin.

It is the last stat that is glaring. CAA: LAMM favors teams that either protect the ball or cause havoc by turning the other team over a bunch.

***

By the way, who is your coach of the year? I’d have to say it’s a three-man race, in no particular order: Anthony Grant, Benny Moss, and Tony Shaver. I love what Monte Ross is doing, and Rod Barnes has transformed Georgia State, but they are in “others receiving votes.”

***

Love The Schedulemaker. That guy has been all over it all season long, as if he had a crystal Excel ball when the whole thing was put together. What is such foolishness, you ask? Here are Wednesday’s matchups:

UNCW (#2) at VCU (#1)

W&M (#5) at Mason (#3)

Nor’Easter (#6) at ODU (#4)

Hofstra (# at Delaware (#7)

***

VCU wins out to Monday and loses, gaining an at large bid? Stranger things have happened in this post Mason in the Final Four world. I’m just saying…

A Few Words on the Dean Keener Resignation…

I don’t know Dean Keener, but I know him.

As a matter of disclosure, we talked a few times as I was researching the book. Our paths have crossed in multiple press conference settings over the past three years, a few of which called for a one-on-one follow up. We spoke for an extended period of time twice as I gathered information for the Blue Ribbon preview magazine.

So while I can’t say I know Dean Keener, I certainly know something about Dean Keener.

I can tell you this with absolute certainty: it is a shame he will not be coaching James Madison next season. Oh, I completely understand he was given four years to turn things around. I know that the turnaround is considered minimal. I know he probably didn’t recruit a wealth of CAA talent, and I know he made coaching mistakes.

I also know all about the final ledger: W-L. For Keener at JMU, it says 30-83 with two regular season games and the CAA tournament to play.

That isn’t the point.

The point is that Dean Keener was hired to clean up an astounding mess at James Madison. The team wasn’t winning, the fans weren’t attending, and the football team was soaring. Basketball had become a punch line at fraternity parties.

Keener’s response was to run off players of questionable character, bench those who felt entitled, and drew a hard line about how he was going to run this program. It was going to be a program the alumni, the faculty, the students, and the administration could look to with pride. Keener turned over his basketball roster and managed the basketball team’s highest GPA ever, but it took its toll on the bottom line (wins and losses, as well as attendance). But it was the right path. This wouldn’t be a clean up that provided victories but more mess to clean up.

Slow, yes. Frustrating, you bet. But keep this data point in mind. This season, one in which he finally had a team he felt comfortable with, JMU has won as many games as the past two seasons combined. Its RPI is hovering around 200, not around 300. Fans are returning and people are talking about the JMU basketball program without the punch lines. They can see success, even if it isn’t yet happening.

Look, I’m no Pollyanna. I’m well aware that Keener, in all likelihood, was facing a “resign or be fired” situation come April. You can’t see it very many other ways. Keener put a ton of stock in this season, and it hasn’t panned out. When it comes down to brass tax, Keener didn’t get it done quickly enough. If I’m JMU AD Jeff Bourne, I don’t know that I make a different decision. And that’s fine.

What I’m saying is this: it doesn’t surprise me one bit that Keener worked out his resignation right now. This gives the JMU athletics department the best opportunity to find the coach they want. It is exactly the kind of intelligent, ethical thinking I’ve come to appreciate from Dean Keener.

At no point in the past three years did Dean Keener duck one of my questions. He always answered them honestly, and with the best information he had available. He told me when they stunk, and he told me why. He admitted when he made mistakes.

In last week’s CAA coaches teleconference, Keener was speaking about the kids on his team continuing to play hard and playing through some heartbreaking losses. He named five or six players and spoke of their character, none of which were named Abdullai Jalloh. It was a glaring omission in my mind, and perhaps a passive salvo to a recuriting mistake. It also may have been a passive piece of symbolism that Dean Keener had had enough. I don’t know this, but I can see it.

Jeff Bourne didn’t hire a coach under investigation for NCAA violations, like Indiana. Interestingly, I think both schools got exactly what they deserved. Herein lies the shame of it all: In two years some major conference school is going to pronounce it time to put the past behind us and pay Kelvin Sampson seven figures. I can only hope that Dean Keener lands a head coaching job as well by then. Both schools will again get what they deserve.

So if you’re a JMU fan and you’re kicking dirt on the coffin of Dean Keener, make sure you have a clean pair of shoes. Your next hire could be far more detrimental to your prrogram than “didn’t win quickly enough.”

Two Stinking Days; That’s All I Ask…

I spent the better part of four hours on the road today, crafting the mental outline of an inspiring “return from skiing” blog. You’ll still get most of it, but now it is going to take on a different hue.

You see, the very day Teh Jepp motored out of town:

1. Dean Keener said goodbye to JMU, and I have a lot to say on that subject.

2. Kyle Whelliston (ESPN) livechatted for five hours (per plan) on Bracketbusters.

3. Jerry Hinnen (Joe Cribbs Car Wash) sent me an email with his plans to liveblog Bracketbusters Saturday and asked me to join.

But anyway, you can expect me to be all over the place for the next two days. First I have to get to the 14 people that emailed me about Keener. (Note: Eric Angevine at CAAZone/stromingthefloor got to me first.) Then, there’s laundry, phone calls, and everything else that goes with getting your life back in order.