The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly…Be Safe Edition

Seriously…don’t be an idiot tonight.

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The Good

Last  night’s two-minute, over-easy performance, aside, it has been an ideal early season for Dean Keener and the JMU Dukes. Few would’ve had the guts to call 8-3 out of the gate and above anything statistical, players are performing and you can see the jell/gell of this team. It is a different JMU than recent years suggest. There could be no more intriguing January opener than hosting VCU. Okay, maybe hosting Mason, but you get the point.

Don’t bury Hofstra. The Pride dropped to 2-8 after losing to Marist the other night and of course have Agreatio on the DL, but there is reason to hope. Nat Lester and Charles Jenkins seem comfy taking on “the load” in AAs absence. Sure they are freshmen and will have ups and downs, but the desire is there. That is a key first step. Plus, Pitzie (Arminas Urbutis) is again showing signs of life on the blocks.

We get going, in earnest, on Wednesday.

The Bad

the ub’s defense, or more precisely the lack thereof. Unfortunately, I have no category for “nonexistent.” UNCG had too many point blank shots the other night, or undefended jumpers. The result was allowing 53% FG shooting to UNCG in a decisive first half.

ODU suffered through another clangfest in losing to UAB. The Monarchs went nine minutes without scoring, fell behind 20-2 and 27-4, and shot 28% in the first half. I have never, ever seen the performance of a team reduced strictly to field goal shooting like this one. Anything else is overanalysis. You look at what they do and see a high level of talent. They play hard and play typical Blaine Taylor suffocating defense. But when you see brick after brick hoisted from everywhere, it gets irritating.

This.

The Ugly

Before today’s 71-50 shellacking of 3-9 Fairfield, the Tribe’s three wins this season were Montreat, North Florida, and Houston Baptist. And now it appears Panama Al Smith will redshirt.

Georgia State is headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time. The Panthers lost to Bethune Cookman last time out and are rewarded by opening the conference season with George Mason, Nor’easter, and VCU.

***

Good luck to Bruiser and the Dragons. Drexel takes on St. Joseph’s in about 40 minutes. That would be a nice one to end the half-season, calendar year. I’ll be popping Drink #1 ’round about tipoff but won’t leave the house tonight. Safe.

Again, don’t be an idiot.

Previewing a Few Things…

Sneak peek at tomorrow’s GBU:

G: They’re Keenerrific in Harrisonburg; reason for hope at Hofstra.

B: Still no d in dub; no swish in Norfolk.

U: Saturday, December 29, 2007 (1-6 noncon).

***

Today, Mason hosts Liberty in a “Lineup Combination Testing” game. Also, Nor’easter travels to Syracuse to play the Orange. The karma note: I ate part of an orange after breakfast. One-and-one ain’t bad.

Almost forgot today’s swing game…the Fightin’ Keeners take on the College of Cremins in Charleston’s own tournament. Keep your eyes on this one tonight. It’s a front-porch swing.

***

The paperback version of Cinderella will hit shelves in mid-February. It will include an updated chapter that covers the events of last season. I haven’t seen a final edit on the content nor a final cover, but here is a first mock:

One Word: Manure. Another Word: Typical

So I’m bumbling around the other day, searching for college hoops nuggets that may slip under the radar this holiday season. I hit Jerry Palm’s outstanding RPI site, figuring some background work was in order when I inevitably address the CAA and bids to the NCAA tourney.

Palm noted that the NCAA has altered the manner in which it assigns home and away distinction to teams for games played at neutral sites. As you know, a road win is worth 1.4 “victories” in the RPI calculation, and a home win 0.6 “victories.”

The change has far more detail than you are about to read, and in fairness the rule hasn’t been officially published so I technically don’t have it. But here it is in a nutshell: the team that provides game management–meaning in charge of ticket sales and game operations–is designated the home team for the game. Location doesn’t matter.

For example, Bill Coen schedules his Northeastern Huskies a game against city rival Boston College at the Boston Garden. Technically, a neutral court and thus neutral game. With all due respect to Northeastern, if 15,000 fans attend this game, 13,000 of them are rooting for BC. Coen knows this but schedules it anyway. Local flavor, good opponent, all that jazz.

Under the old rule, it is a neutral court game. Now, consider buy games and the problem major conference schools have scheduling quality opponents yet assured victories. Now also consider the importance of RPI and the mid majors assault on the higher reaches of the RPI rankings. Consider how the game is changing and the threats out there.

So let’s now say Al Skinner tells Bill Coen “hey Bill, I’ll give you the $40,000 guarantee, but it’s your game to manage.” Suddenly, Nor’easter is playing BC for 0.6 wins in the RPI calculation. BC is getting 1.4.

The buy game rules stay the same, but the seller suddenly has a better deal, on the court. And let’s take it one step further:

Al: “Bill, I can give you $40,000 and you are the home team. Or, we’ll play it for a straight 50/50 on the ticket sales and concessions.”

Bill: “Gee whiz.”

Either way, the major conference team wins. They either stop paying huge buy game sums–money in which mid majors will use to compete more favorably in terms of recruiting budgets or facilities or to underwrite more teevee–or the majors get the better end of playing a de facto home game AND the RPI benefits. This doesn’t even factor in the potential RPI disparity widening due to the natural settling of teams once conference season begins.

None of this even begins to address the dubious timing: over the holidays when everyone is paying attention to other things; and it is in effect for THIS season, giving nobody the opportunity to schedule against a changing standard.

In short:

It’s garbage. Pure garbage. Good thing there are smarter people than the NCAA–the folks on the selection committee are smart enough to know what’s going on. They know what to ignore.

Fear is a funny thing, isn’t it?

Agudio Hurt, Drexel Wins, And Other Items You Know…

By now you’ve heard the news. Antoine Agreatio, the country’s second leading scorer, has suffered what is being called a “high ankle sprain” and will miss time for Tom Pecora. Thanks to HIPAA laws, the prognosis is everywhere from a few days–this weekend’s Holiday Festival only–to three weeks. Some are even calling for the linger effect and that Agreatio may not be fully healthy until February 1.

I have no problem with the laws, and the point is that nobody really knows. With an injury like this, I don’t think Agreatio really knows. It’s a different injury and I’m not–let me repeat not–pretending I know something, but consider Darryl Monroe of George Mason. He went from missing a few practices to missing the first three weeks of the season to taking a red shirt.

You just don’t know, and that’s okay.

For Pecora, he has to be wondering who owns the voodoo doll. This has been a season of adjustments and this one poses the biggest impact. Pecora recently told Hoops Weiss of the NY Daily News that Hofstra is starting three freshmen and it is an adjustment.

“It’s a similar situation to the one we had when Antoine, Loren and Carlos first came in. They were young and they just had to play through it. We just hope this team can get rockin’ and rollin’ in the Garden and eventually become a team nobody wants to play in March.”

The interview came before Agreatio’s injury, which for Pecora has to be like spending a great deal of time and energy building the perfect sandwich only to realize you only have one slice of bread.

And phooey to those who say it is a blessing in disguise. Yes the freshmen get to play more but to call it a blessing is to give up on this season. Tom Pecora would never do that.

Hofstra plays Virginia Tech this evening at 6:30 at The Garden.

***

Drexel took down Rider last night 73-66 behind four players scoring double figures, none of which carry the name Frank Elegar. Tra Hawthorne dropped in 15 points, all in the second half on five three-pointers, to lead the way. We said it here a long time ago…Hawthorne is vitally important to the success of Drexel, which sounds funny.

***

I heard from an In the Know who confirmed for me that Vinny Lima is entering Nor’Easter as a freshman student and is therefore eligible to play on the basketball team. There is nothing odd or quirky about it.

Lima is 6′10″ is skilled, and has a solid frame. (My take only: that means he isn’t a gawky kid who needs a pile of instruction to see three minutes per game.) At worst Lima becomes another piece of the Huskies puzzle, adding frontcourt depth and pushing the current players for floor time. At best, Lima steps out and hits the 12-foot jumper, adding another dynamic to a Nor’easter team that is better than you think.

***

I made it a personal thing to avoid discussing the Three Letter Caligula until at least January 2. I’ll honor that and not talk about the RPI until then. Therefore, my take on a second bid for the CAA will be a Jan. 2 item. Here’s a hint:

Maybe Less Egg Nog and More Fruit Was Good Advice…

Hoping your holiday was a wonderful one. We enjoyed ours, though I will note putting together a Barbie Dream Home at midnight, sick, and chock full of wine is not as glamorous as you envision. The most “fun” part is after wrangling Chinese-made plastic for two hours, you get to ask the question: “this thing needs batteries?”

Alas, we’re back among the living and excited about the start of conference play. Sure, there’s a New Year’s Eve trip on the horizon but I was able to make it to every CAA coach’s house yesterday and found a few interesting items under the tree. I’ll tell you what I saw later.

For now, we’ll start with some newsworthy tidbits:

Nor’Easter has added 6′9″ forward Vinny Lima to its roster. I hear Lima runs about 225 pounds, but I’m tracking additional info. Lima is out of Sao Vicente in the Republic of Cape Verde and will be eligible to compete for the Huskies starting with their Jan. 12 game at George Mason.

(Side note: Cape Verde is a republic located on an archipelago in the Macaronesia ecoregion of the North Atlantic Ocean, off the west coast of Africa. But you knew that already.)

Lima played five seasons of basketball for Associacao Academica do Mindelo, an AAU team in Cape Verde. He captained the squad his final two seasons, was named team MVP twice and led his team to a league title in 2006.

Here’s what I’m tracking:

1. How is a player signed in December eligible to compete in January? My guess is that he is just like any other student in that he is going to enroll in school for the spring semester, which makes him eligible on that front. He just happens to be 6′9″ and skilled in the ways of basketball.

2. Is his name pronounced Leema, as in the capital of Peru, or Lime-a, as in the bean.

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Jay Threatt, who made it through some trouble and legal issues in Richmond prior to arriving at George Mason this fall, has decided to transfer from the Fairfax school.

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The CAA has chosen Eric Maynor (VCU) and Terrance Carter (JMU) as its co-players of the week. I for one am glad Maynor is finally getting some overdue press. All I ever read about is Terrance Carter.

The NOW: Alphonso Dawson of Delaware.

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Don’t think we didn’t notice JMU gave up 69 points in the second half of its loss to Seton Hall. Also, Towson’s Junior Hairston has seven double-doubles in the Tigers’ first 10 games.

***

Also chasing today: the Christmas gift list; my take on the “second bid,” and previewing something.

A Zycam Christmas…

There was so much I wanted to get to yesterday, but alas the illness that won’t die saw a resurgence. I spent yesterday under the covers, hazily watching game after game. I wanted to log in to provide brilliant analysis but could barely muster the strength to whine about my plight.

I do remember former Hofstra assistant Tom Parotta’s Canisius team wearing some of the slickest gold shoes I’ve ever seen. I remember Denver running a slick-looking, double-high-post, backdoor-cutting offense. I recognized the names of a couple of Elon players. And I remember shortly before a nap a big grin when I saw James Madison up by 13 with four minutes to play against Seton Hall.

But anyway, much to get to today, and we’ll get it done. Need more medicine.

A Few Data Points…

Just some things to kick around while you’re getting dressed for tonight’s Christmas party…

Yes, recruiting is huge. But perhaps no other recruting haul was more important than the entire CAA in 2001. Credit athletic directors for Blaine Taylor, Tom Pecora, and Bruiser Flint for coming into the league that season.

That would be, in order, Jim Jarrett, Jack Hayes Harry Royle(thanks Dutch), and Eric Zillmer.

 ***

VCU coach Anthony Grant continually talks about possessions when asked about his pressure defense. He calmly glides past the same questions about 10-second violations and passes into the third row. He certainly doesn’t hate those. But he always, instructively, talks about the value of the basketball and the extra possessions they create. It’s about turnover differential and getting additional opportunities.

Generally those points are skipped over by those that follow the conference. They aren’t as sexy as traps and pressing all over the floor. Here’s your chunk to chew: VCU is averaging 68.6 possessions per game, up from 67.0 in its championship year. Its defensive points-per-possession is currently 0.87, better than last year’s 0.97.

The clip-and-save for the league: the VCU defense is probably better than last year’s version.

Side note: Credit to Kyle. I’m telling you…one hour with Basketball State will bring a lot into focus.

***

In my best Bill the Cat: “Ack !!!!!”

That’s all that comes to mind when I consider tonight’s ODU at Winthrop matchup. There’s no use in trying to figure out the Monarchs, though I will say this…I’ve never seen a team so dependent upon shooting the ball well in my life. Now that seems to be an odd statement, but it is reality.

And Mason’s matchup against Florida International? If college hoops is played in June, this game is never scheduled. That’s all I’ve got to say about that. Enjoy Disney.

***

Finally, tomorrow (Saturday for those of you that are late…) is a huge day for the CAA. Normally I’m not one for overexaggeration, but opportunity is all over the place:

VCU at Bradley–road win and a quality opponent and a statement game

Nor’Easter at BC–you’d better believe this will turn heads. People will begin using terms like “depth” in reference to the CAA.

Bucknell at Drexel–a better name win than actual helper, but Bruiser could use this one.

JMU at Seton Hall–there’s validation, vindication, and see the Nor’Easter game.

Hofstra at Rhode Island–another quality roadie at Rhody. The cold CAA team beating the hot A10 will rejuvenate a few things…

Montreat at William & Mary–just kidding.

A Smidgen of Paranoia…

If I wasn’t smart enough to know I have zero impact on a college basketball game, I’d swear I’m a jinx. I’d believe that I single-handedly ruined Chad Tomko’s freshman season. Cost ODU a victory. And that was just this week. Last night, only hours after I praised William & Mary’s ability to take care of the basketball and gave David Schneider credit for being a very good shooter, the following occurred:

The Tribe committed 32 turnovers. Schneider’s marksmanship was 4-11 (3-9 from the arc).

And yes, I botched Alex Smith yesterday. He didn’t play. Neither did Alex Jones. Another bad error and a mea culpa.

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And speaking of odd…last night Duke played Pitt in a much-hyped early season game. Interestingly, VCU beat Duke and then lost to Pitt in last year’s NCAA tourney. (I did not hear if Jay Bilas pointed this factoid out during the broadcast. We were wrapping presents.)

The odd thing: with time running out, Pitt’s point guard–the same guy that turned the ball over repeatedly in VCUs comeback last year–step-faked, cross-over dribbled, stepped back, and buried a three with little time on the clock. Duke managed only a desperation heave at the buzzer that clanged away. You would have to be brain-dead not to pick up on the eerie similarities between this ending as last year’s Duke/VCU game.

I think the only thing we were missing was the McClure Zombie Face when the opposition’s shot fell.

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After some shopping, we’ll add to the convo. ODU has Winthrop and GMU has Fla International; and I’ve been immersed in Basketball State.

Finally, We Can All Exhale…

I barely made it. I wasn’t sure I could do it, but I’ve survived. Granted we’re still about six hours from kickoff and anything can happen, but it appears I’ve made it to the college football bowl season. Whew.

Utah and Navy square off in one of those games that you dream about all summer in the Poinsettia Bowl (brought to you by the San Diego County Credit Union). I’d use the word ludicrous, if not for this gem over at ESPN.com. The writer’s “most intriguing matchup” is–shockingly–the national championship game. Really.

My question: are there any others? I mean, tomorrow it’s Memphis and Florida Atlantic. That isn’t even an interesting basketball game.

***

Had to get that off my chest.

I mentioned yesterday that I’m worried about William & Mary and its homer against VMI. I remain worried, as the Tribe has everything going against it this evening, when you look at it from a Fate standpoint.

Still, David Schneider is as tough a player as there is in the CAA. He has one ugly-looking shot, but he’s tough. Schneider knocks down 45% of his threes playing D1 college basketball, so who am I to question anyway? Plus, Danny Sumner continues to come along and get better and Alex “R Freighttrain” Jones is getting healthier. And finally, the Tribe is second in the conference in turnovers and first in assist-to-turnover ratio. I like those numbers in a fast-paced game.

Tribe wins it, 88-78.

History Repeats Itself, and So Does the Present…

I’m very confused today. Both Delaware and Old Dominion have me out of sorts. Plus, with the work schedule winding down, there’s lots I can finally get to address.

You see, I had determined that predictions would no longer be made with the heart, but figured one last gasp for Monte Ross couldn’t hurt. So now that the Hens in fact won the game, I’m reconsidering intuition. And friggin ODU. Just when I think history won’t repeat itself, the Monarchs do just that. ODU walked into the tomb that is the Robins Center and were beaten by Richmond. Wrong (again and again). This is going to require some thought.

Behind 54% shooting and five different players making three field goals each, the Hens went to Burlington and defeated Vermont 71-60. Delaware committed 28 turnovers, including a Folarin Campbell-like 10 from Marc Egerson. (Data point: Nor’easter committed six as a team last night, but we’ll get to that later.)

I’m really starting to dig some of the developing statistical measures…Gasaway and Pomeroy’s tempo-free stats being at the top of that list. We’ll get into more of that over Christmas and into the conference season, but Delaware only took nine more shots than turnovers committed (YouDee was 20-37 from the field). Seems to be a wow stat to me.

For its part, Old Dominion suffered a letdown game in Richmond. Two seasons ago, ODU blitzed DePaul by about 436 points and then came to Richmond and lost to the Spiders. This year, it was the great victory over Vatek that preceded the letdown. Also, ODU has now lost six in a row to (the university of) Richmond and nine in a row to VCU in (the city of) Richmond in the regular season. More thought needed.

So anyway…

Perhaps the most important stat from Nor’Easter’s six turnovers is that point guard Chase Allen committed only one in 36 minutes of action. Also for the clip ‘n save file: Manny Adako (19 points) and Eugene Spates (12 points and three treys in 18 minutes) finally had breakout games. Those two are very important to the success of the Huskies.

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I’m not sure where to start with the dub, who have now lost any capitalization. A road loss is excusable, but the manner in which it occurred is bothersome. Everyone is aware the Seahawks haven’t exactly guarded much this year. So allowing Coastal Carolina to fire away at a 55 percent clip in the first half last night wasn’t news. But to give up 59% accuracy in the second half? And force only 10 turnovers?

Side note: Dom Lacy started and posted a Gretzky.

By the way, uncw lost 90-86. That brings up another wonderful reason for tempo free stats. If given the choice on which team will win a random game, I’ll take Drexel scoring 65 points over uncw scoring 85 points. Pure “average per game” tells you little.

***

Towson lost in overtime to Lafayette, 79-69 despite all efforts of CAA: LAMM CAA POY Jon Pease (16 points on 7-8 shooting and nine rebounds). The difference is likely that Lafayette hit 3-4 from long distance in the extra session and the Tigers made 2-9 from any distance.

Side note: it looks like Tommy Breaux and his injured foot may redshirt. (Not that Kennedy could redshirt only his foot…)