Don’t Pay the Ferryman

Rumors of my body turning up on the Canadian side of the Niagara Falls are greatly exaggerated.

A few quick lines, then I’m off again. Time for my annual golf trip…there’s nothing like 108 holes of golf over four days, played Ryder Cup style, in South Carolina, during the Final Four. Rations: Pop Tarts, coffee, dogs at the turn, and Stella. Rinse and repeat.

Nothing like it.

Except driving to Indy to watch a CAA team play and writing the final two chapters of your book. But I digress…

***

Recruiting gurus, enjoy your time in the sun. I’ll let the speculators have at it and see you October 15.

How badly do you think Blaine Taylor wishes Petey Sessoms had some eligibility left? My kingdom for a shooter…

Anthony Grant is being mentioned for every available position short of taking over as host of that “Dirty Jobs” show. I’ve scheduled a meeting with my boss to review my performance. You should, too.

Is there really anything better than beating Duke? Why yes, there is. Beating Duke in the NCAA tournament and having Paulus immortalized on YouTube for his flop and seeing another YouTube in which Rupp Arena goes crazy when it’s announced Duke lost and…well…it’s just fun beating Duke.

Now I know why people are “from” Buffalo, never “currently living” there. But I’m not one to judge. If you love ass cold weather, constant wind, friend foods and five city blocks serving alcohol in nine bars at 11:00am, then Buffalo is for you.

Loren Stokes was named Honorable Mention All America. Good for him. Outside of hoops, he is just a great kid.

Sleeping with the Enemy

I had dinner tonight with the Butler basketball team. I really did. It was by happenstance, really. We sat down for dinner and in walked the team, along with Coach Todd Lickliter. Nice guy, that Coach L. I gave him a book and he asked me to sign it for him.

They are really small. Valdas Vasylius may have a field day. And if Arnaud Dahi shows up, ODU wins by 10.

Side note: if four Butler players turn up with food poisoning tomorrow morning, I promise I had nothing to do with it.

***

The other biggie is VCU/Duke. Maybe I’ll find some time in the morning to talk about this one. Yeah, probably will. You see, it’s late.

***

All I’ve seen of Buffalo? It gives the word DISMAL a new meaning. Wow. But Niagara Falls are worth the trip, but don’t stay long. You may lose your wallet.

Dirty Deeds, Done Dirt Cheap

I don’t know. I really don’t know.

My half full says it’s another step forward for the conference: last year it was two bids, and this year it is two bids plus the most-discussed snub. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t stink any less, because at the end of the day it is still a snub of the Drexel Dragons.

Here’s my biggest beef: the committee has repeatedly said that the path to inclusion is to play on the road, win those games, and beat somebody. You have to win in conference, but it’s what you do outside of conference that will tell the tale.

So that’s exactly what Bruiser Flint did. They went to Syracuse. Villanova. St. Joseph’s. Vermont. Creighton. And won them all. An NCAA-best 14 road wins. The Dragons were not rewarded. It’s one thing if they didn’t hand you the roadmap. This is worse than a snub, to be honest.

Committee head man Gary Walters says it was the 1-5 against the CAA top teams that held them back. I say the 1-5 was against two NCAA teams and an NIT team. Sorry, but if you’re gonig to hold VCU, ODU, and Hofstra against Drexel, then you have to hold South Carolina, Mississippi, Auburn, and LSU against Arkansas.

And Stanford? I’m okay with 18-12, provided you play someone and lose in your noncon. Sorry, but 116 noncon SOS ain’t passing muster.

I don’t even want to make it a one team versus one team argument, either. Put Drexel in a group with Illinoise, Purdue, Stanford, and Arkansas and try to find the scenario in which Drexel is Team #5. I dare you.

Tom Pecora told me last year that this is a major conference tournament and I do my best to keep from becoming jaded. It’s becomnig more difficult by the season.

Walters was on Mike and the Mad Dog show on New York’s WFAN radio and he said that “there is sensitivity” to putting two HBCUs against each other in the play in game…he just admitted that they take non-competitive aspects into the equation. Granted it is fan entirely different premise than anything we discus here, but it shows a compunction to use factors having nothing to do with on-court matters. He used teh ultimate defensive answer when pressed about Drexel–that the Dragons are a three seed in the NIT.

At the poker table, those are tells.

***

We’re going to celebrate VCU, ODU, Drexel and Hofstra as they should be celebrated. Just for the rest of today I have to clean that bad taste from my mouth.

Drink, Drank, Drunk

John Bunkley and the Atomic Fireballs. No longer together.

***

Dickie V likes Drexel.

Lunardi’s Latest has Drexel in and ODU and the first team out. He also has K-State in and Arkansas out.

It’s a good sign.

Time for me clean off my roof (there is real life on a 60 degree day) and sweep the porch.

Then, it’s back to see what the Smart Guys are saying now. Data point: ’round about 3:00 last year George Mason went from nowhere in sight to on the board for Lunardi.

data point: nobody had Air Force or Utah State anywhere near their brackets, and to a man liked Cincinnati over Seton Hall.

How did all that work out?

Dog Day Afternoon

Had to move from the songs to the movies; today is that kind of day.

Let’s do some math. Currently I’m working through adding and multiplying fractions with my fourth-grader, and that’s somehow appropriate.

We’re going to make a series of simple statements after the numbers. Then, more math. Then, so opinion.

We’re going to assume Carolina beats NC State. Thinking otherwise tempts The Fates and we don’t want to do that this morning.

ACC: 7
Discuss: Florida State
Better not: Clemson

Big East: 6
Discuss: Syracuse
Better not: West Virginia

Big 10: 4
Discuss: Illinois, Purdue

Big 12: 3
Discuss: Texas Tech, Kansas State
Better not: Oklahoma State

Pac 10: 5
Discuss: Stanford

SEC: 5

Valley: 2
Discuss: Missouri State

A10: 2

MWC: 2
Better not: Air Force

Horizon: 2

One Bids: 20

That gets my count to 58; giving 7 spots “open.”

Teams I think are in but wouldn’t be shocked if out: Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue, Texas Tech, Florida State, Stanford.

That’s six of the seven.

Barring any of the Better Nots taking a bid, that leaves a spot for:

Kansas State, Missouri State. Oh, and two Colonial teams by the name of Old Dominion and Drexel.

OPINION
Had to get that stated…

I’ve got to figure the surprise choices will balance out the surprise outs. For every West Virginia (choice) there will be a Syracuse (out). So we’ll keep that ONE number pure. To do otherwise will drive you crazy.

I’ll state now that given those odds, if the Colonial is one-bidded this year there is a problem with the selection process. Both Colonial teams are clearly more qualified than Missouri State and you can make an argument for qualifications against Kansas State.

Did I miss a team? It’s possible. I’m preparing for four radio interviews today and coming off of daylight savings time.

PERSONALLY
I’m sweating my ass off.

My guess: two CAA teams. VCU and…………………………..

Faith

Keep the faith, my brothers. Xavier and Nevada did the CAA no favors, but they also did West Virginia and Friends no favors either.

What an ugly Friday night.

But there is hope.

More on that later.

Homeward Bound

VCU fans have reserved a special place in hell for Mississippi State. Just ask them sometime.

But Drexel and ODU fans need not worry about the Bulldogs for another day. Yes, it was a good win over a good Kentucky team, but their overall attractiveness is rather like my prom night: not too bad and it had its moments, but there was no dancing. The RPI remains in the mid 60s, they are 4-6 versus top 50 and 8-10 versus top 100 teams, 5-9 in road/neutral games, and a bland noncon slate (rpi 74 and SoS 127) with best win being Texas A&M Corpus Christi (#87). Oh, and George Mason beat them.

They need more.

***

As for other afternoon results:

1. Yay to Carolina and Ohio State. I don’t know about Florida State, but I do know about Michigan. Goodbye NCAA and goodbye Tommy Amaker.

2. Purdue blew out Iowa, which you may think is bad but really isn’t. They were getting in anyway. This is more like your 86% foul shooter making two late in the game. You knew, but you didn’t want to admit you knew.

3. Kansas State is putting it on Texas Tech, and I think that’s a good thing. I like to think Kansas State really has no shot, but I don’t know. Texas Tech could be the Big 12 version of Purdue.

4. Vandy is in, so you have to hope they can come back against Arkansas. I think it doesn’t happen and Arkansas gets in with this victory.

Huggy Bear

Oregon Hill Funk All Stars. sad they don’t play together anymore.

Your rap sheet, as in “teams of interest:”

QUITE A DISCUSSION
Well, there’s ODU and Drexel. Then, there’s:

(1) West Virginia: I don’t get it. RPI is greater than 50 and 2-6 against top 50 RPI. 275 noncon SOS. 275 !!!

(2) Syracuse: If Boeheim is saying “I don’t know,” then you have to wonder. But I think they are good to go.

(3) Illinois: Suspect doesn’t begin to describe this team. Lost 8 of 11 to top 50. You can play ‘em, but you have to win ‘em. Win tonight probably in (sad). Loss should be out. This is a key game for the mids.

(4) Indiana: they will get in but are classic phonies. Root for them tonight. Pick against htem next week.

(5) Purdue: interstingly sits next to Drexel on KenPom and Drexel nails them in every category. Look at those two teams. Really. And tell me there’s not something funky in the RPI. Go Hawkeyes.

(6) Bradley: I think I actually like these guys before Missouri State as the third Valley team.

(7) Texas Tech: I don’t get why they are a lock. I really don’t. Maybe a win today, but I don’t see anything special. I mean they are completely average.

( Air Force: should be out; done everything the committee says not to do, including losing their last four. Ick.

(9) Florida State: loss to Carolina tonigt is their 12th–I repeat 12th–to top 50 RPI. Also 4-6 in last 10 with loss. They are probably in, but this is screaming Lee Corso (not so fast my friend).

(10) Arkansas: they are starting to really play well and it shows. Root for Vandy today, but I think Arkansas wins and locks up a spot.

(11) Michigan: a win today against Ohio State changes the discussion, but they shouldn’t be on anyone’s final list, except maybe Krzyzewski.

(12) Kansas State: This is Michigan, only without the opportunity today. They’ve lost 5 of 6 to top 50 teams and have a putrid noncon SOS. As difficult as it seems, root for Huggy Bear today.

DONE

Stanford: tough loss last night, and I can actually make a case for these guys.

Clemson: this is a no comment needed item.

Alabama: 2-7 against top 50 RPI. Blech.

RANDOM STATEMENTS
Nevada and Xavier need to hold serve.

Dear Lord, don’t let Oky State win today and get into the discussion.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm…

Once again, let me be clear: Duke is in the NCAA tournament.

Let me also be clear: if Duke is better than a 9 seed–especially after last season’s selections–you can officially no longer tell me the committee doesn’t look at history without me tasting bile in the back of my throat. It will be a joke of momumental proportions.

Take Coach K and Christian Laettner and the Cameron Crazies out of the picture, you know, like the Selection Committee says they do.

–With their tournament loss, Duke finished 8-9 in the ACC (6th). Oh, lost in first round of conference tournament to RPI 115 team.
–Lost 6 of last 10 and 7 of 11 (closing speed?)
–8-9 to RPI top 50 (average…you can’t give me the 8 without including the 9…)
–But it’s the ACC! Fine. Best ACC wins: home to BC, home to Ga Tech. Best road ACC win: at BC and at, uh Clemson. Mediocre is being kind.
–Good nonconference wins, but we’ll deal with that later. (Home Indiana, home Georgetown, neutral Gonzaga)
–Best nonconference road win: they didn’t play ANY noncon on the road, though I will give them Gonzaga in New York, a neutral game, and Air Force in Kansas City.

Now, let’s put Drexel on the board, as a comparative:

14-5 in the CAA (vs. 8-9 ACC)
7-3 in last 10, 8-3 in last 11 (vs. 4-6, 4-7)
3-4 RPI top 50 (vs. 8-9)
Nonconference RPI 5, SOS 5 (vs. 4, 11)
Road/neutral record 14-5 (vs. 7-5)
Good nonconference wins: at Syracuse, at Villanova, at St. Joseph’s, Vermont.
Best noncon road win (see Cuse, Nova)

Every measure is very comparable. Every single one.

Four things stand out here:

1. Duke is a lock and Drexel is on about half the projection boards; however, when you look at it the teams are EXTREMELY comparable and very close.

2. I don’t know if Drexel is in or out, but if the Dragons are in, their seed had better be within a line or two of Duke. It won’t. This is what got me to the “Duke as a six seed is a joke” from above.

3. Remember, ODU is in this same discussion.

4. The RPI continues to confound me. I thought it was about winning. But Drexel has an equal RPI and better noncon SOS than Duke. Yes, they play in a lesser conference but they have 13 wins as opposed to 8. Far more road wins. And yet, Duke’s RPI is 14 and Drexel 46. You can’t tell em that playing and losing to your conference foes is worth that much more. It just makes me scratch my head.

***

Didn’t I mention something about not crying a couple of weeks back?

I’m not whining or crying. I’m not going to say ODU or Drexel belongs in ahead of anybody else. I’m merely pointing out things that make me scratch my head.

More of that later.

Amazing Gracce

Real Life. Bah!

Another Let Me Get This Out of the Way Comment: I’ve noticed a trend this week, and it makes me want to puke. I’m sick of these guys hedging on their picks for teh NCAA tournament by saying “but I’m not on the committee so I don’t know and neither do you.”

Here’s a bulletin: fire is hot. I already know you’re not on the committee and I don’t care if you’re on the social committee of the local Kiwanas Club. You’re being asked for your opinion and analysis of the NCAA tournament.

Give it, and stop hedging. Pehaps I’m a bit sensitive to this topic since my email box has blown up in the past two days, but I digress…

***

One more: my crack publicist has landed me on the Colin Cowherd Show Monday morning. Give it a listen. Round about 10:25 I believe. I’ll be talking college hoops, and if you didn’t know, I’m not on the selection committee.

***

Let me say this as clearly and delicately as possible: just because I like something about some other team does not mean I don’t like Old Dominion. Saying Drexel has done what the committee asks–or that the Dragons have big road victories–is NOT saying Old Dominion has neither. Stop internalizing everything.

That goes for non-basketball stuff, too.

***

So.

Old Dominion.

Here’s what I love: a win at Georgetown; 12 of 13 down the stretch (that is closing speed); 15-3 and second place in the CAA. You can’t ignore that, not after last year. A healthy RPI number which if it doesn’t finish the best in the conference, it is within whiffing distance.

Top 50 RPI record is 4-3. OOC RPI is 50. All good. All is what is asked of a mid major. But really what this is about is their comparative teams.

Air Force: very comparative numbers, except that they’ve lost three in a row, are the #3 seed in their tourney, and are 2-4 against the top 50.

Illinois: 3-8 against top 50 RPI and those are against bottom dweller Big 10 teams; only 7-7 on road. Purdue is suspiciously the same.

Like Drexel’s fourth place finish in the CAA, I must point out that ODU has converted on one of four opportunities: There’s Georgetown; then there’s Clemson, Winthrop, and Virginia Tech.

But when you look at EVERYTHING, and I mean everything, I choose ODU over all of those teams.

***

What you people are failing to see is that it isn’t a direct comparison. It just isn’t. When the committee talks about body of work, they aren’t talking about who you played all season and what games you specifically won and lost. They are talking about how ALL of the numbers look when brought together, and when compared on equal fotting to those numbers for other teams.

There is a picture there, and you can see it if you look hard enough.

Think of it this way: what happens in the NCAA tournament?

Find six numbers that best quantify what that looks like (e.g., what a tournament team looks like…)

Now think about the word PHONY.

(Side note: I’ll save you the time: “the only phony in here is YOU!”)