Pa-rum-pa-pum-pum.
I promised. My view has always been to let the early season play out. It is darn near impossible to figure out how good or bad a team is going to be until, oh, somewhere around Christmas. Guess where we are right now?
So I’ve put together my view of how teams are looking/appear to look as we get ready to crank into teh conference season. We have a pretty decent gauge. Please understand that my prognosis is against how teams were “expected” to be, not what they are.
Enjoy or not. I know you know where to send emails.
And note: I reserve the right to edit my opinions after several glasses of egg nog. There is a certain clarity that comes with holiday cheer. (Plus, I have two parties to attend that will be slightly less painful than pulling out my own eyes with a dull spoon. Two minutes into 80% of the conversations, my mind will wander to Cory Cofield, Bruiser Flint, Hofstra’s free throw shooting, and wondering who in the world is responsible for moving the VCU at UNCW game from a Saturday in December.)
***
Delaware: I’m not sure what to say, other than the Hens are one of three winless teams left in Division 1. Herb Courtney plays hard and Zaire Taylor is a threat on both ends of the floor. A pair of freshmen Johnsons (Brian and Darrell) are seeing legit playing time. But 0-7 is terrible. A 12/23 game against UNCG should give Monte Ross his first head coaching victory. We hope.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Critical. Delaware is clearly a bottom three team. If that.
Drexel: It took some time for the Dragon Wagon to catch steam, but they are rolling. Back-to-back wins over Villanova and Syracuse shows just how good they are. Frank Elegar is playing to a first team All CAA level, and Dom Mejia has not warmed to the season yet. Bruiser has seniors, so look out.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Optimistic. I thought they’d be the top team, and they look like it.
George Mason: It’s termed “getting used to each other” and “blending in three new starters,” but I see a ton of dribbling and one-on-one play. Make no mistake, George Mason is very good. The conference season will play out with double-digit victories, but the key to this season resides in the next two weeks. These guys have got to come together. It’s getting way past late to be getting used to each other.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Guarded. There are a myriad of reasons to explain it away, but they are still 4-4. They could easily be this year’s ODU.
Georgia State: Lance Perique has proven he can take the next step and lead this team offensively. The Panthers also get Justin Billingslea back from academic suspension, which will help the Deven Dickerson illness issue. If there is any team where you can see the long term pieces coming together, this is it. I’m not ready to pronounce them top six, but they are knocking on the door.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Stable. This isn’t the year Perry’s Panthers break through, but you can see it coming.
Hofstra: If it is possible, Hofstra is the team people have forgotten in this race. They haven’t won impressively yet and lost two games that they had no business losing. Stokes, Rivera, and Agudio are as good as advertised. Greg Washington coming back from NCAA Stupidity is beyond key for them. He retook his SAT yesterday, so stay tuned for the most important announcement to come from Long Island since the Buttafuoco case.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Cautious. Everybody is down on the Pride after opening the season with three losses, but they are the same team everybody (but me) picked to win the CAA. The bagel in the middle is larger than expected.
James Madison: This is a very, very odd team. Juwan James is playing well. So is Pierre Curtis. Joe Posey leads the conference in three pointers made. I guess I’d look at giving up 40% shooting from three and 50% overall and scream “Somebody cover that guy!” I’m not supposed to root, but I admit that I’m hoping it isn’t another long season in Harrisonburg. I may not have a choice.
Prognosis Against Expectations: ICU. This is the point last year when JMU lost about 12 straight games by 15 or more points in a row. I thought things were going the right direction, but home losses to Dartmouth and Youngstown are bad. We need House, or at least Trapper John McIntyre.
UNCW: I’d vote this Seahawks team as “Most Likely to Make Fans Jump Off a Bridge.” A fast pace and 3-6 record are not what folks at the beach are used to seeing. Vladie Kools is doing his best Uwe Blap impression, and Montez Downey looks promising—the kind of gunner Benny Moss wants. Unfortunately Daniel Fountain is not John Goldsberry.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Serious. Every season The Dub is picked for sixth or seventh place. Methinks this is the year they do it.
Northeastern: The three seniors have provided exactly what Poor Bill Coen wanted—leadership and stability. Plus, Matt Janning has shown himself worthy of first team all newcomer. It’s tough to gauge this team—they lost so much from last year and have not played particularly well nor particularly poor. I wouldn’t be surprised if they showed up in beige uniforms.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Uncertain. They’ve lost, big, the games they were supposed to lose big. Sometimes really big. Who really knows, but my assessment stands—they will wear road uniforms in the play-in game.
Old Dominion: I didn’t think I could type the words, but here goes: as Valdus Vasylius goes, so goes the Monarchs. Readers know my love for Drew Williamson, but it seems this team rises and falls to VVs versatility. Williamson and Brian Henderson are steady as they come. Arnaud Dahi is on his way, but the lack of minutes in the past few games has less to do with his knee and more to do with his annual attitude adjustment. Abdi Lidonde could be the key in many, many ways.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Cautiously optimistic. Gerald Lee is coming along, and Jonathan Adams remains above average. Brandon Johnson has been a tremendous boost—the 8-3 start is no mirage.
Towson: You can see the train coming down the tracks. CC Williams is beginning to “get it,” and Gary Neal has not yet gotten hot, in the Dom Mejia way. Dennard Abraham is absolutely filling the Lawrence Hamm role. When Neal gets going and everybody gets comfy with roles, this will be a scary team.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Egad. All the plaudits aside, if it doesn’t come together, Pat Kennedy has a train wreck on his hands. I’m wagering that it lands somewhere in the middle—the Tigers are going to beat Drexel badly and lose to JMU. You know it and I know it.
VCU: Everybody knew VCU had talent. Everybody also knew the “94 feet both ways” attack of Anthony Grant was going to pay dividends. The surprise is how quickly it appears to be coming together for VCU. The Rams still have a huge hole in the middle—Eric Davis remains suspended and Calvin Roland’s minutes continue to dwindle—but VCU has the makings of a top three finish. Eric Maynor surprisingly leads the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Prognosis Against Expectations: Feeling good. How they look against teams with a lot of size (Drexel) or multiple good guards (Hofstra) will be telling.
William & Mary: Is that optimism I hear coming from Williamsburg regarding its basketball team (not holiday sales)? David Schneider is a surprise at point, and Adam Payton is steady. Stat you didn’t know: The Tribe is second in the league in FG % defense (first in three-point defense) with five of their eight opponents not cracking 41%. How do you scout a team with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game?
Prognosis Against Expectations: Improving. It’s kind of a good feeling, but W&M was in a similar position at this time last year. Laimis Kisielius needs to be consistent, and what in the world happened to Corey Cofield?