I reserve the right to edit this over the next few days. Not only did the Stella flow freely, but I also learned the beauty of Barolo.
Skip typos and the like; we’ll get it straight in the next few days. I will also add some overall thoughts to the mix–right now it is time to get outside.
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Drexel: 14-4
Why They’re Here: Four returning starters, which is backed by a four-year starter at point guard and more than one weapon in the post. Nobody is talking about Kenny Tribbett just like nobody at this time last year talked about Frank Elegar. Throw in the fact that Drexel lost just about every close game last year and that Bruiser Flint teams always play tough, and you have the recipe for success. Experience always rules, too.
Why I May Be Wrong: The same players are back from a mediocre team; Chaz Crawford does not develop offensively; Domonic Mejia gets into a funk—if he’s off, the Dragons have no reliable scorer from the perimeter.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Mejia drilled at least four treys in 15 of Drexel’s 31 games and shot 84% from the FT line. Don’t let him shoot from deep, and don’t hack him when he drives.
Hofstra: 14-4
Why They’re Here: Easily, by far, the best backcourt in the conference. Loren Stokes should have been last year’s conference POY, and he should only battle Gary Neal for this year’s honor. Antoine Agudio continues to add weapons to his game—last year it was medium-range game to go with his outside shooting, and this year he will drive more. Chris Gadley has an opportunity to become their Adrian Uter.
Why I May Be Wrong: An unproven bagel in the front court, and nobody steps into Uter and Aurimas Kieza’s shoes. It is also a very short bench that could take its toll. Carlos Rivera was quietly very, very good last season. Everybody’s production suffers if Rivera has a poor year.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: I know I’ve written it here before but it bears repeating: Rivera played ALL 120 minutes in the CAA tourney without committing a turnover. Also, Antoine Agudio’s threes may reduce this year as teams overplay him at the arc. But he’s worked on his midrange game, so expect his scoring to increase.
George Mason: 13-5
Why They’re Here: Jim Larranaga is a system coach, and to an extent you can plug and play with his system. The Patriots are getting the athletes to stay at the top of the league. Will Thomas emerged last season as a force, and Folarin Campbell is a steadying force that can beat you in multiple ways. John Vaughn, widely known as the best of the three freshmen Mason had on the All CAA team two years ago, is back. And experience counts. Trask will get wild and the DAC will get hot, but none of it will shock the Final Four players and coach.
Why I May Be Wrong: I don’t care who says what, you just don’t replace three senior starters without bumps in the road. Thomas is going to need to add to his offensive repertoire, as people now know he’s good. Sammy Hernandez or Jesus Urbina must produce more than the little things. Other than Campbell, I’m not sure I want the ball in any other guard’s hands, and that includes Jordan Carter.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: With all of the hype surrounding Final Fours, Will Thomases, and Birdsongs, Darryl Monroe is slipping a bit under the radar. The kid is a bruiser but also hit 48% from three-point land last year and is one of the better passing big men Jim Larranaga has seen. If Mason repeats success, Monroe will be a significant name in the mix.
ODU: 12-6
Why They’re Here: It’s tough to put a Blaine Taylor coached team in the middle of the pack, but the Monarchs will miss Alex Loughton and Isaiah Hunter more than they think—there’s no go-to scorer who has that kind of mentality. ODU is relying on Arnaud Dahi’s knee to hold up, and turning Drew Williamson into a “shoot first” point guard may reduce his incredible value. Still Jonathan Adams is a stud, and Valdas Vasylius does everything you need him to.
Why I May Be Wrong: Dahi plays up to pre-injury potential, allowing Williamson to remain a distributor; Adams develops a shot and contributes more than garbage points; role players like Brian Henderson and Abdi Lidonde step up. It is not a coincidence that ODU and VCU have identical records—they are nearly identical teams.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Henderson is the guy to step up in the absence of Loughton and Hunter. However he must be more aggressive—Henderson shot just 19 free throws last season (making 13) despite averaging more than 25 minutes per game.
VCU: 12-6
Why They’re Here: From a pure talent and athleticism standpoint, the Rams are as good as anyone in the conference. With Nick George gone, VCU will play a more well-rounded team game, especially in crunch time. New coach Anthony Grant is also going to open up the attack to take advantage of his team’s ability, something Jeff Capel never did. Eric Maynor is a difference-maker at the point, and VCU gets back center Calvin Roland.
Why I May Be Wrong: Maynor is still just a sophomore; VCU will be relying on more than one player to step up in the new system: Jamal Shuler, Michael Anderson, and BA Walker all need to assume more productive roles; Eric Davis doesn’t produce and Roland’s back issues flare up.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Don’t underestimate a change in attack for the Rams. As usual, VCU is as athletic as any team in the conference, and Grant’s decision to scrap a mechanical attack will reap dividends. Grant will go “94 feet both ways,” which will tire many teams with shorter benches.
UNCW: 11-7
Why They’re Here: I know I will get punished for this pick. The Teal Nation will hit me with “we’re always underrated, we’re conference champs you dolt, and good—pick us here, just like everybody every year.” To an extent, you are right. But then again, it’s legit. You don’t replace a guy like John Goldsberry easily, and spare me the JD Gardner comparisons. Plus, take a good, hard, look at that schedule. Toughest in the conference. New coach. New system. Todd Hendley’s knee. It’s a matter of the number of questions marks on the Excel spreadsheet.
Why I May Be Wrong:See the above paragraph and change all the words. No, seriously. TJ Carter emerged as a stud last season, so I’m not worried about someone stepping up. Carter doubled his scoring average the last half of last season. Trask. Temi Soyebo runs the offense like he prefers—fast and efficient—but also learns how to shoot. My personal fave, Vladie Kools, blossoms.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Jeff Horowitz is a plodder in a system that will be more up-tempo. If he couldn’t get significant minutes at CoC, he’s not getting them at The Dub. Dejan Grkovic is the man you should watch.
Towson: 11-7
Why They’re Here: I’ve got to say this was the most difficult pick to make. They’re here because I cannot put them ahead of any of the others above them, yet if the Tigers finish 12-6 and in the top four I won’t be shocked. This team is loaded with talent, beginning with Gary Neal. Dennard Abraham is a name you kind of knew last year but you’ll get to know very well. Pat Kennedy has assembled the pieces—there is nothing but good karma surrounding this team.
Why I May Be Wrong:With a pile of new guys that will challenge the holdovers, the dreaded C-word comes into play: chemistry. The lack of chemistry has destroyed teams better than the 2006-07 Towson Tigers. Plus, though Kennedy is very high on juco transfer CC Williams, there is still a transition period to playing D1 college basketball.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Pat Kennedy sounds an awful lot like Jim Larranaga last season at this time: we need to play more defense. Kennedy also believes it takes three years to turn around a basketball program. This is his third season at Towson.
Georgia State: 5-13
Why They’re Here: Guards make the world go ‘round, and the Panthers graduated four of them. There are also several new faces on this team. It takes time for that kind of turnover to gel.
Why I May Be Wrong: These guys are pretty big and pretty talented up front, something not many CAA teams can say. Billingslea, Dickerson, and Chase could pound teams into submission.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Even though they lost four of them, it was clear that GSU didn’t have CAA-level guards. They finished the year ninth in the CAA in turnover margin. Perry’s recruiting class was guard-heavy for a reason.
William & Mary: 5-13
Why They’re Here: Calvin Baker was their leading scorer and decided to transfer out. The slack must be picked up. Though some of their young players showed promise towards the end of last season, they are still young and Tony Shaver lost minutes-eaters.
Why I May Be Wrong: Nobody will dispute Baker was a shot-hog and not the best teammate. Cofield is coming into his own as a senior—leadership and talent can buoy a team. Adam Payton can play; can he play up to his potential? The Tribe always plays hard.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: No player on this team finished in the top 20 in the CAA in scoring or rebounding last season. Only Laimus Kisielius and Payton started more than seven games among the returnees.
James Madison: 4-14
Why They’re Here: There are exactly zero seniors on this squad, and Gabe Chami is the only upperclassman with real experience. They were just plain bad for long stretches last season, and you don’t just turn that switch off.
Why I May Be Wrong: Keener finally has team he likes—players who will work hard and understand what you have to do to be successful on the collegiate level. Probably the biggest reason they were just plain bad is gone. The Dukes are kind of the Anti-Towson: chemistry can be a huge help.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Even if it was for no other reason than Dean Keener had no choice, Swanston started the final 15 games of last year for JMU and led them in scoring in three of the final seven games. He has bulked up a bit and brings as much pure value to this team as anyone.
Northeastern: 4-14
Why They’re Here: This one isn’t hard: goodbye, conference player of the year. Goodbye, coach. Goodbye, country’s best defensive presence. Goodbye, much of the support.
Why I May Be Wrong:The Huskies will fall; the only question is how far. Bill Coen is a straight-shooter and the success of the team resides in Bobby Kelly and Bennet Davis: are they stars, or supporting cast? Honestly, I really don’t know. I would be shocked if this team wins 10 conference games. I wouldn’t be shocked if they win 8.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Kelly will need to create his own shot. Last season, JJ Barea’s break-neck drives to the hoop left Kelly standing alone on the perimeter, which led to 44% marksmanship.
Delaware: 3-15
Why They’re Here: This team won nine games and lost Harding Nana and Rulon Washington and has a new coach.
Why I May Be Wrong: This team won nine games and lost Harding Nana and Rulon Washington and has a new coach. Monte Ross may be turning things around, but for this year I really don’t think I am wrong.
Important Note Most Folks Don’t Realize: Zaire Taylor led the conference in steals with 2.27 per game. He also shot 33% from beyond the arc and dished out 112 assists against only 72 turnovers in 30 minutes per game. He was just a freshman.
